As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

Variation in natural disturbance regime within a landscape is important for species population dynamics, because it controls spatial arrangement of sites providing regeneration and survival opportunities. In this study, we examine the differences in fire regime and evaluate possible sources of its variation between the surrounding mainland and the islands of Lake Duparquet (44.5 km²), a typical boreal lake in north-western Quebec, Canada. Dendrochronological reconstructions suggest that fires were frequent and of variable intensity on the islands, whereas fires were less frequent on the adjacent mainland, but were usually large and intense. Islands were significantly drier and warmer than the mainland, and maximum values of Fire Weather Index were significantly higher on the islands during both the early part of the fire season (May–June) and the whole fire season (May–September). The lightning density within the lake perimeter was significantly higher than in the surrounding mainland (0.63 v. 0.48 year^–1 km^–2 respectively). This pattern was a result of the differences in lightning density during the first half of the lightning season. The study suggests that more fire-prone local weather and higher frequency of lightning strikes could cause a higher frequency of low-intensity fires on the islands, compared with the mainland.

Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management.

Résumé : Le principal objectif de cet article est d'évaluer si les changements climatiques futurs vont conduire à une augmentation de l'activité des feux dans la région de Waswanipi, dans le centre du Québec. Tout d'abord, nous avons utilisé des régressions linéaires pour modéliser la relation historique (1973–2002) entre les conditions météorologiques et l'activité des feux. Ensuite, nous avons calculé les composantes du système de l'Indice Forê-Météo à partir des simulations quotidiennes des conditions météorologiques du Modèle Régional Canadien du Climat pour le scénario A2 de changements climatiques (1961–2100). Nous avons testé les tendances linéaires de l'activité des feux sur la période 1961–2100, et calculé les taux de changement entre 1975–2005, 2030–2060, et 2070–2100. Nos résultats suggèrent que le risque de feu du mois d'août pourrait doubler (+110 %) d'ici 2100 alors que celui du mois de mai pourrait diminuer (–20 %). Ainsi, le pic saisonnier de l'activité des feux pourrait survenir plus tard dans la saison. Les changements climatiques futurs pourraient également créer des conditions plus favorables aux incendies forestiers, et donc à une légère augmentation de l'activité régionale des feux (+7 %). Bien que nos résultats suggèrent une augmentation à long terme de l'activité des feux, la variabilité interannuelle des feux demeure un défi important pour le développement d'un aménagement forestier durable.

Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management.

Résumé : Le principal objectif de cet article est d’évaluer si les changements climatiques futurs vont conduire à une augmentation de l’activité des feux dans la région de Waswanipi, dans le centre du Québec. Tout d’abord, nous avons utilisé des régressions linéaires pour modéliser la relation historique (1973–2002) entre les conditions météorologiques et l’activité des feux. Ensuite, nous avons calculé les composantes du système de l’Indice Forê-Météo à partir des simulations quotidiennes des conditions météorologiques du Modèle Régional Canadien du Climat pour le scénario A2 de changements climatiques (1961–2100). Nous avons testé les tendances linéaires de l’activité des feux sur la période 1961–2100, et calculé les taux de changement entre 1975–2005, 2030–2060, et 2070–2100. Nos résultats suggèrent que le risque de feu du mois d’août pourrait doubler (+110 %) d’ici 2100 alors que celui du mois de mai pourrait diminuer (–20 %). Ainsi, le pic saisonnier de l’activité des feux pourrait survenir plus tard dans la saison. Les changements climatiques futurs pourraient également créer des conditions plus favorables aux incendies forestiers, et donc à une légère augmentation de l’activité régionale des feux (+7 %). Bien que nos résultats suggèrent une augmentation à long terme de l’activité des feux, la variabilité interannuelle des feux demeure un défi important pour le développement d’un aménagement forestier durable.

Questions: What climate variables best explain fire occurrence and area burned in the Great Lakes-St Lawrence forest of Canada? How will climate change influence these climate variables and thereby affect the occurrence of fire and area burned in a deciduous forest landscape in Témiscamingue, Québec, Canada?

Location: West central Québec and the Great Lakes-St Lawrence forest of Canada.

Methods: We first used an information-theoretic framework to evaluate the relative role of different weather variables in explaining occurrence and area burned of large fires (>200 ha, 1959-1999) across the Great Lakes-St Lawrence forest region. Second, we examined how these weather variables varied historically in Témiscamingue and, third, how they may change between the present and 2100 according to different scenarios of climate change based on two Global Circulation Models.

Results: Mean monthly temperature maxima during the fire season (Apr-Oct) and weighted sequences of dry spells best explained fire occurrence and area burned. Between 1910 and 2004, mean monthly temperature maxima in Témiscamingue showed no apparent temporal trend, while dry spell sequences decreased in frequency and length. All future scenarios show an increase in mean monthly temperature maxima, and one model scenario forecasts an increase in dry spell sequences, resulting in a slight increase in forecasted annual area burned.

Conclusion: Despite the forecasted increase in fire activity, effects of climate change on fire will not likely affect forest structure and composition as much as natural succession or harvesting and other disturbances, principally because of the large relative difference in area affected by these processes.

We examined the fire–climate relationship at the northern limit of commercial forest in western Quebec, a region where forest management is currently competing with fires for mature stands. The main objective was to determine if a particular climate signal would control the fire activity in this region when compared with other parts of the Quebec boreal forest.We used 500-hPa spatial correlation maps to compare the atmospheric patterns associated with the annual area burned (AAB) in the study area, the entire province of Quebec, the intensive (southern Quebec), and the restricted (northern Quebec) fire management zones. Next, dendroclimatic analyses were used to obtain tree-ring estimates of the AAB back to 1904 and to investigate the temporal stability of the fire–climate relationship. The climate controls associated with the AAB of the study area are intermediate between those associated with the AAB of the intensive and restricted fire management zones. The 500-hPa correlation patterns for the 1948–71 and 1972–2001 periods were relatively stable through time for the study area and for the restricted fire management zone. Our results provide a plausible mechanism for explaining the link between sea surface temperature and regional fire activity established in previous studies. They also provide information complementary to the Canadian fire danger rating system that uses daily weather data. © 2008 IJWF. All rights reserved.

The synchrony of regional fire regime shifts across the Quebec boreal forest, eastern Canada, suggests that regional fire regimes are influenced by large-scale climate variability. The present study investigated the relationship of the forest-age distribution, reflecting the regional fire activity, to large-scale climate variations. The interdecadal variation in forest fire activity in the Waswanipi area, north-eastern Canada, was reconstructed over 1720–2000. Next, the 1880–2000 reconstructed fire activity was analysed using different proxies of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We estimated the global fire cycle around 132–153 years, with a major lengthening of the fire cycle from 99 years before 1940, to 282 years after 1940. Correlations between decadal fire activity and climate indices indicated a positive influence of the PDO. The positive influence of PDO on regional fire activity was also validated using t-tests between fire years and non-fire years between 1899 and 1996. Our results confirmed recent findings on the positive influence of the PDO on the fire activity over northern Quebec and the reinforcing role of the NAO in this relationship.

Abstract: The past decade has seen an increasing interest in forest management based on historical or natural disturbance dynamics. The rationale is that management that favours landscape compositions and stand structures similar to those found historically should also maintain biodiversity and essential ecological functions. In fire-dominated landscapes, this approach is feasible only if current and future fire frequencies are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire frequency, so a substitution of fire by forest management can occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. We address this question by comparing current and simulated future fire frequency based on 2 × CO2 and 3 × CO2 scenarios to historical reconstructions of fire frequency in the commercial forests of Quebec. For most regions, current and simulated future fire frequencies are lower than the historical fire frequency, suggesting that forest management could potentially be used to maintain or recreate the age-class distribution of fire-dominated preindustrial landscapes. Current even-aged management, however, tends to reduce forest variability by, for example, truncating the natural age-class distribution and eliminating mature and old-growth forests from the landscape. Therefore, in the context of sustainable forest management, silvicultural techniques that retain a spectrum of forest compositions and structures at different scales are necessary to maintain this variability and thereby allow a substitution of fire by harvesting.

Résumé :Au cours de la dernière décennie, un intérêt grandissant pour le développement d'approches d'aménagement basées sur notre compréhension de la dynamique historique des perturbations naturelles s'est manifesté. Ces approches reposent sur l'idée qu'un aménagement favorisant une composition des paysages et une structure des peuplements similaires à celles créées dans les forêts passées devrait aussi maintenir la diversité biologique et les fonctions écologiques essentielles de ces mêmes paysages et peuplements. Dans les paysages contrôlés par les feux, cette approche est possible seulement si les fréquences de feux actuelles et futures sont suffisamment faibles lorsque comparées aux fréquences pré-industrielles, cela afin de permettre de substituer le feu par la coupe forestière. Nous évaluons cette possibilité en comparant les fréquences de feux actuelles et futures aux fréquences historiques à partir d'études réalisées dans la forêt commerciale québécoise. Les fréquences actuelles et futures des feux, simulées en utilisant deux scénarios de concentration de CO2 (2× et 3× la concentration actuelle), sont plus faibles que les fréquences passées pour la majorité du territoire, suggérant que l'aménagement forestier pourrait potentiellement être utilisé afin de recréer la structure d'âge de la forêt soumise à un régime de feux sévères. Les aménagements équiennes actuels tendent toutefois à réduire la variabilité naturelle du système: par exemple, un aménagement équienne amputera, à terme, la structure d'âge de la forêt naturelle éliminant ainsi les forêts surannées et anciennes du paysage. Le développement de techniques de sylviculture permettant le maintien d'un spectre de compositions et structures forestières à différentes échelles de paysage est une des avenues proposées afin de maintenir cette variabilité. ©2006 NRC Canada

Five independent multicentury reconstructions of the July Canadian Drought Code and one reconstruction of the mean July–August temperature were developed using a network of 120 well-replicated tree-ring chronologies covering the area of the eastern Boreal Plains to the eastern Boreal Shield of Canada. The reconstructions were performed using 54 time-varying reconstruction submodels that explained up to 50% of the regional drought variance during the period of 1919–84. Spatial correlation fields on the six reconstructions revealed that the meridional component of the climate system from central to eastern Canada increased since the mid–nineteenth century. The most obvious change was observed in the decadal scale of variability. Using 500-hPa geopotential height and wind composites, this zonal to meridional transition was interpreted as a response to an amplification of long waves flowing over the eastern North Pacific into boreal Canada, from approximately 1851 to 1940. Composites with NOAA Extended Reconstructed SSTs indicated a coupling between the meridional component and tropical and North Pacific SST for a period covering at least the past 150 yr, supporting previous findings of a summertime global ocean–atmosphere– land surface coupling. This change in the global atmospheric circulation could be a key element toward understanding the observed temporal changes in the Canadian boreal forest fire regimes over the past 150 yr.