Mixed?wood boreal forests are characterized by a heterogeneous landscape dominated by coniferous or deciduous species depending on stand moisture and fire activity. Our study highlights the long?term drivers of these differences between landscapes across mixed?wood boreal forests to improve simulated vegetation dynamics under predicted climate changes. We investigate the effects of main climate trends and wildfire activities on the vegetation dynamics of two areas characterized by different stand moisture regimes during the last 9000 years. We performed paleofire and pollen analyses in the mixed?wood boreal forest of north?western Ontario, derived from lacustrine sediment deposits, to reconstruct historical vegetation dynamics, which encompassed both the Holocene climatic optimum (ca. 8000–4000 a bp) and the Neoglacial period (ca. 4000 a bp). The past warm and dry period (Holocene climatic optimum) promoted higher fire activity that resulted in an increase in coniferous species abundance in the xeric area. The predicted warmer climate and an increase in drought events should lead to a coniferization of the xeric areas affected by high fire activity while the mesic areas may retain a higher broadleaf abundance, as these areas are not prone to an increase in fire activity.

Understanding fire regime dynamics is central to predicting forest structure and the compositional dynamics of boreal forests. Spatial and temporal variations in fire frequency in central Canadian boreal forests over the last 10 000 years were examined to evaluate the influence of bottom-up controls on the regional fire regime. We analysed macroscopic charcoal larger than 160??m from sediment cores from six lakes to reconstruct fire history and performed GIS analysis of regional landscape features to investigate how fire frequency has changed temporally and how non-climatic factors may have affected long-term fire frequency. Our generalized linear mixed model revealed that temporal changes in fire return intervals (FRIs) were highly dependent on landscape connectivity as inferred through the abundance of natural firebreaks in the form of open water lakes and wetlands. FRIs did not change significantly among highly connected landscapes throughout the Holocene; in contrast, FRIs were significantly longer among poorly connected landscapes in the early Holocene (10–5 cal ka BP), suggesting that the abundant regional firebreaks limited fire spread. All sites had similar FRIs in the late Holocene. The diminishing influence of firebreaks suggests that the regional climate during the late Holocene has overshadowed the influences of the bottom-up controls on fire activities.

• Macroscopic sedimentary charcoal and plant macroremains from two lakes, 50 km apart, in north-western Ontario, Canada, were analysed to investigate fire frequency and tree abundance in the central boreal forest. These records were used to examine the controls over the long-term fire regime, and vegetative dynamics associated with fire return intervals (FRIs).
• There were 52 fire events at Lake Ben (surrounded by a xeric landscape) between 10 174 calibrated years before present (cal. year bp) and the present with an average FRI of 186 years with values oscillating between 40 and 820 years. Forty-three fire events were recorded at Lake Small (surrounded by a mesic landscape) between 9972 cal. year bp and the present with an average FRI of 229 years and a range of 60–660 years. FRIs at Lake Small decreased significantly after c. 4500 cal. year bp, whereas at Lake Ben FRIs remained similar throughout the Holocene. Different FRI distributions and independence in the occurrence of fire events were detected between 10 000 and 4500 cal. year bp for the two sites. Between 4500 cal. year bp and the present, similar FRIs were observed, but fires continued to occur independently.
• Longer FRIs resulted in declining abundance of Larix laricina in both landscapes. Longer FRIs resulted in a decline in the abundance of Picea mariana in the xeric landscape, but a marginal increase in the mesic landscape. Abundances of Pinus banksiana, Pinus strobus and Betula papyrifera were unrelated to FRI, underlying that these species maintain their local abundance irrespective of fire frequency.
• Synthesis. Our results show contrasting fire regime dynamics between a xeric and mesic landscape in central boreal forests, Canada. These results highlight the influence of local factors as important drivers of fire frequency at centennial to millennial scales. Local site factors, especially soil moisture, need to be incorporated into predictive models of vegetation response to climate change.

Determination of the direct causal factors controlling wildfires is key to understanding wildfire–vegetation–climate dynamics in a changing climate and for developing sustainable management strategies for biodiversity conservation and maintenance of long-term forest productivity. In this study, we sought to understand how the fire frequency of a large mixedwood forest in the central boreal shield varies as a result of temporal and spatial factors. We reconstructed the fire history of an 11,600-km2 area located in the northwestern boreal forest of Ontario, using archival data of large fires occurring since 1921 and dendrochronological dating for fires prior to 1921. The fire cycle decreased from 295 years for the period of 1820–1920 to approximately 100 years for the period of 1921–2008. Spatially, fire frequency increased with latitude, attributable to higher human activities that have increased fragmentation and fire suppression in the southern portion of the study area. Fire frequency also increased with distance to waterbodies, and was higher on Podzols that were strongly correlated with moderate drainage and coniferous vegetation. The temporal increase of fire frequency in the central region, unlike western and eastern boreal forests where fire frequency has decreased, may be a result of increased warm and dry conditions associated with climate change in central North America, suggesting that the response of wildfire to global climate change may be regionally individualistic. The significant spatial factors we found in this study are in agreement with other wildfire studies, indicating the commonality of the influences by physiographic features and human activities on regional fire regimes across the boreal forest. Overall, wildfire in the central boreal shield is more frequent than that in the wetter eastern boreal region and less frequent than that in the drier western boreal region, confirming a climatic top-down control on the fire activities of the entire North American boreal forest.