Potential natural vegetations are crucial for forest research, management, and monitoring, especially considering their evolution amidst climate change. In Quebec (Canada), these vegetations were defined in the 2000s but haven't been updated since then. Originally, stability in their composition and dynamics relied on unchanged climate, soil characteristics, and disturbance regimes. However, in the southwestern part of Quebec forests, we have enhanced the description of potential natural vegetations using diagnostic species, based on their indicator values and relative abundance. This improvement prompts a reevaluation of these vegetations, particularly at the transition between temperate and boreal forests, considering climate change. Our study, using tree habitat suitability models, reveals that even under a moderately warming scenario (2041–2070 RCP 4.5 W m−2), diagnostic coniferous and boreal hardwood species face habitat suitability declines but the current classification remains adequate. However, a more severe warming scenario (2071–2100 RCP 8.5 W m−2) results in significant habitat unsuitability for these diagnostic species, questioning the relevance of the current classification at the ecotone. Given the crucial tool of potential natural vegetations in forest management, updating their classification becomes imperative to guide forestry practices' adaptation to climate change.

The characteristics of the frost regime (intensity, frequency, and timing) contribute to shaping tree species adaptations and distribution as well as ecosystem productivity and functions. However, climate change increases the variability in extreme events; therefore, the different characteristics of the frost regime may diverge under climate change. Using the BioSim 11 software, we simulated daily air temperature at 512 locations over northeastern North America between 1901–2021 to determine how the spatio-temporal trends in the frost regime varied over this complex landscape and if spatio-temporal trends in extreme climatic events such as frosts are stronger compared to changes in aggregated climate variables such as mean annual air temperature and growing degree-days. We also used an eco-physiological model to conduct a case study focussing on white spruce to determine if trees are currently more exposed to growing season frosts than they were in the past by modelling the timings of budburst using the thermal time model. Our results showed that, at 67% of locations (343 locations), the day of the year of the last frost in spring (minimum daily air temperature<0 °C) occurred, on average, earlier by seven days during 2001–2021 compared to 1901–1920, whereas it occurred, on average, later by four days at 33% of locations (169 locations). The average temporal trends in frost occurrence were similar in magnitude to the average trends in aggregated climate variables; however, their variances were larger compared to the aggregated climate metrics, showing that the frost regime does not change uniformly throughout our study area. Our case study also revealed that white spruce remains exposed to late frosts of low and intermediate intensities (minimum daily air temperature <0; <−2 °C) compared to the past but exposure to high-intensity frosts (minimum daily air temperature <−4 °C) is rare. Since extreme events such as late frosts diverge in their response to climate change compared to aggregated climate variables, the mean annual temperature is not sufficient to predict how climate change will impact ecosystems through frost regimes.

La saison des feux de forêt de 2023 au Québec, marquée par des conditions extrêmement chaudes et sèches, a établi de nouveaux records en brûlant 4,5 millions d'hectares. Cette situation est directement liée aux impacts persistants et en augmentation du changement climatique. Cette étude examine les conditions météorologiques exceptionnelles ayant mené aux feux et évalue leurs impacts significatifs sur le secteur forestier, la gestion des feux, les habitats du caribou boréal, et met particulièrement en lumière les répercussions profondes sur les communautés des Premières Nations. Les feux ont entraîné une baisse significative de la productivité des forêts et de l'approvisionnement en bois, submergeant les équipes de gestion des feux et nécessitant des évacuations massives. Le territoire et les communautés des Premières Nations ont été profondément affectés, confrontés à de graves problèmes de qualité de l'air et à des bouleversements considérables. Si l'impact sur l?habitat du caribou a été modeste dans l'ensemble de la province, les répercussions écologiques, économiques et sociales ont été considérables. Pour atténuer les impacts à venir des prochaines saisons de feux de forêt extrêmes, une avenue suggérée serait de modifier les pratiques d?aménagement forestier afin d'accroître la résilience et la résistance des forêts, d'adapter les structures industrielles aux nouvelles sources d'approvisionnement en bois et d'améliorer les stratégies de lutte contre les feux et la gestion des risques. De même, une approche globale

The fundamental trade-off between current and future reproduction has long been considered to result in a tendency for species that can grow large to begin reproduction at a larger size. Due to the prolonged time required to reach maturity, estimates of tree maturation size remain very rare and we lack a global view on the generality and the shape of this trade-off. Using seed production from five continents, we estimate tree maturation sizes for 486 tree species spanning tropical to boreal climates. Results show that a species' maturation size increases with maximum size, but in a non-proportional way: the largest species begin reproduction at smaller sizes than would be expected if maturation were simply proportional to maximum size. Furthermore, the decrease in relative maturation size is steepest in cold climates. These findings on maturation size drivers are key to accurately represent forests' responses to disturbance and climate change.

Partial cutting has lower canopy removal intensities than clearcutting and has been proposed as an alternative harvesting approach to enhance ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration and storage. However, the ideal partial cutting/clearcutting proportion that should be applied to managed areas of the eastern Canadian boreal forest to enhance long-term carbon sequestration and storage at the landscape scale remains uncertain. Our study projected carbon dynamics over 100 years (2010–2110) under a portfolio of management strategies and future climate scenarios within three boreal forest management units in Quebec, Canada, distributed along an east–west gradient. To model future carbon dynamics, we used LANDIS-II, its Forest Carbon Succession extension, and several extensions that account for natural disturbances in the boreal forest (wind, fire, spruce budworm). We simulated the effects of several management strategies on carbon dynamics, including a business-as-usual strategy (clearcutting applied to more than 95 % of the annually managed area), and compared these projections against a no-harvest natural dynamics scenario. We projected an overall increase in total ecosystem carbon storage, mostly because of increased productivity and broadleaf presence under limited climate change. The drier Western region under climate scenario RCP8.5 was an exception, as stocks decreased after 2090 because of the direct negative effects of extreme climate change on coniferous species’ productivity. Under the natural dynamic scenario, our simulations suggest that the Quebec Forest in the Central and Western regions may act as a carbon sink, despite high fire-related carbon emissions, particularly under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Conversely, the eastern region periodically switched from carbon sink to source following SBW outbreaks, thus being a weak sink over the simulation period. Applying partial cutting to over 50 % of the managed forest area effectively mitigated the negative impacts of climate change on carbon balance, reducing differences in stand composition and carbon storage between naturally dynamic forests and those managed for timber. In contrast, clearcutting-based scenarios, including the business-as-usual approach, substantially reduced total ecosystem carbon storage— by approximately double (10 tC ha−1 yr−1) compared to partial cutting scenarios (<5 tC ha−1 yr−1). Clearcutting led to higher heterotrophic respiration due to the proliferation of fast-decomposing broadleaves, resulting in lower carbon accumulation compared to partial cuts. Our findings underscore the importance of balancing canopy removal intensities to increase carbon sequestration and storage while preserving other ecosystem qualities under climate change.

Large-scale modes of climate variability influence forest fire activity and may modulate the future patterns of natural disturbances. We studied the effects of long-term changes in climate upon the fire regime in the red pine forests of eastern North America using (a) a network of sites with dendrochronological reconstructions of fire histories over 1700–1900 A.D., (b) reconstructed chronologies of climate indices (1700–1900), and (c) 20th century observational records of climate indices, local surface climate and fire (1950s-2021). We hypothesized that (H1) there are states of atmospheric circulation that are consistently associated with increased fire activity, (H2) these states mark periods of increased climatological fire hazard, and (H3) the observed decline in fire activity in the 20th century is associated with a long-term decline in the frequency of fire-prone states. At the annual scale, years with significantly higher fire activity in the reconstructed and modern fire records were consistently associated with the positive phases of the Pacific North American pattern (PNA), either independently or in combination with the positive phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index (ENSO). During years with both ENSO and PNA in their positive state, the region experienced positive mid-tropospheric heights and temperature anomalies resulting in drought conditions. The fire-prone climate states identified in the reconstructed records became less frequent in 1850 but re-emerged in the 20th century. While our study did not demonstrate a direct influence of climate on the observed decrease in fire activity in the 20th century, it does reveal a clear climate signal embedded within the fire history reconstruction of the region over the past centuries. This study underscores the importance of considering large-scale climatic patterns in understanding historical fire regimes and highlights their role for future fire dynamics in the region and shaping ecological effects of future fires.

Les caractéristiques des forêts préindustrielles permettent d?établir des états de référence pour l'aménagement durable des forêts. Cette approche historique est particulièrement pertinente pour les régions soumises à une forte influence humaine, dans lesquelles les forêts naturelles sont rares. C'est le cas de la région de Rouyn-Noranda, à l'ouest du Québec. Nous avons utilisé les archives d'arpentage disponibles pour reconstituer la composition préindustrielle des forêts boréales mixtes de cette région. ? partir d'une base de données comportant 3621 observations sur la composition historique des forêts (1909?1940), nous dressons un portrait des forêts préindustrielles et des changements survenus dans la région. ? l?époque préindustrielle, les épinettes représentaient les espèces les plus abondantes: elles étaient présentes dans 85,5 % des observations, et étaient identifiées comme dominantes (c.-à-d., les plus abondantes localement) dans 63,9 % des observations. Les épinettes tendaient à être abondantes sur l'ensemble du territoire et des types de dépôts de surface. Entre les époques préindustrielle et moderne (1980?2020), nos résultats montrent une augmentation de la fréquence des feuillus de début de succession, dont principalement le peuplier faux tremble (+28 %). Ces changements de composition semblent attribuables à la combinaison de perturbations (feux, coupes, agriculture, etc.). Nous discutons finalement des implications de ces résultats pour les stratégies d'aménagement écosystémique dans la région.

La saison des incendies forestiers au Canada en 2023 a été d?une telle ampleur qu?elle force une réflexion profonde au sujet de l?aménagement forestier tel qu?il est pratiqué actuellement dans la forêt boréale canadienne. Comme des événements similaires sont susceptibles de se reproduire dans les années à venir, nous devons réfléchir à des pratiques forestières permettant de mieux faire face à ces risques pour en atténuer les conséquences. En nous concentrant sur la situation du Québec, nous examinons six options générales en guise de contribution au débat à propos d?une stratégie d?adaptation à mettre en ?uvre face à l?augmentation du risque d?incendie de forêt. Afin d?atténuer les conséquences néfastes des futurs incendies dans la forêt boréale, nous suggérons que le maintien des processus naturels de résilience, la protection des communautés et des infrastructures clés et le déploiement d?un banc d?essai pour tester certaines pratiques d?adaptation sont deux options à considérer. Nous proposons aussi la prise en compte a priori du risque d?incendie dans la planification de l?approvisionnement en bois et dans les investissements sylvicoles ainsi que l?amorce d?une transition industrielle pour les communautés dépendantes de la forêt.

Extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in South America, likely causing decreased plant productivity and altering species distributions. Yerba mate (Ilex paraguariensis) is a tree species native to South America and has an ecological, social, and economic importance in several countries. Natural forests and cultivated areas of yerba mate will be endangered by climate change because of the expected reduction in water availability. Here we determined how clonal genotypes of yerba mate (BRS BLD Yari, BRS BLD Aupaba, BRS 408, and EC40) respond to four levels of soil water holding capacity (100%, 80%, 60%, and 40% WHC) over 60 days, by evaluating the plants’ morphophysiological and biochemical characteristics. We observed a reduction in plant height and biomass accumulation related to the decrease in water availability; physiological and biochemical parameters indicated that water-deficit stress reduced the plants’ C assimilation and increased their production of bioactive compounds. BRS BLD Yari had a higher tolerance to low water availability, with greater biomass accumulation and photosynthetic rates that indicate greater water use efficiency. Understanding how different yerba mate genotypes respond to water deficit is essential for species conservation and developing climate-adapted breeding programs.