Regional analyses assessing the vulnerabilities of forest ecosystems and the forest sector to climate change are key to considering the heterogeneity of climate change impacts as well as the fact that risks, opportunities, and adaptation capacities might differ regionally. Here we provide the Regional Integrated Assessment of climate change on Quebec's forests, a work that involved several research teams and focused on climate change impacts on Quebec's commercial forests and on potential adaptation solutions. Our work showed that climate change will alter several ecological processes within Quebec's forests. These changes will result in important modifications in forest landscapes. Harvest will cumulate with climate change effects to further alter future forest landscapes, which will also have consequences on wildlife habitats (including woodland caribou habitat), avian biodiversity, carbon budget, and a variety of forest landscape values for Indigenous peoples. The adaptation of the forest sector will be crucial to mitigate the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystem goods and services and improve their resilience. Moving forward, a broad range of adaptation measures, notably through reducing harvest levels, should be explored to help strike a balance among social, ecological, and economic values. We conclude that without climate adaptation, strong negative economic and ecological impacts will likely affect Quebec's forests.

Regional analyses assessing the vulnerabilities of forest ecosystems and the forest sector to climate change are key to consider the heterogeneity of climate change impacts but also the fact that risks, opportunities and adaptation capacities might differ regionally. Here we provide the Regional Integrated Assessment of climate change on Quebec’s forests, a work that involved several research teams and that focused on climate change impacts on Quebec’s commercial forests and on potential adaptation solutions. Our work showed that climate change will alter several ecological processes within Quebec’s forests. These changes will result in important modifications in forest landscapes. Harvest will cumulate with climate change effects to further alter future forest landscapes which will also have consequences on wildlife habitat (including woodland caribou habitat), avian biodiversity, carbon budget and a variety of forest landscape values for Indigenous peoples. The adaptation of the forest sector, will be crucial to mitigate the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystem goods and services and improve their resilience. Moving forward, a broad range of adaptation measures, notably through reducing harvest levels, should be explored to help strike a balance among social, ecological and economic values. We conclude that without climate adaptation strong negative economical and ecological impacts will likely affect Quebec’s forests.

1. Major environmental changes affect the health and capacity of ecosystems to sustain Indigenous people's well-being in boreal landscapes. Collaboration between Indigenous communities and researchers could help assessing and mitigating the consequences of environmental changes.
2. We used Driver Pressure State Impact (DPSI) conceptual models to compare the perspectives of Indigenous and scientific communities on environmental changes in boreal landscapes of Quebec, Canada.
3. The Indigenous DPSI model emerged from interviews with local land-use experts from two Indigenous communities. The scientific model was informed by the publication topics of expert researchers.
4. We compared the Indigenous and scientific models and exposed convergences and divergences between perspectives. Forestry was identified as a major driver of change in both models. Most issues related to mining, hydro-power and forest road development were specific to the Indigenous model. Climate change and wildfires were of greater interest in the scientific model.
5. Convergences between the perspectives of Indigenous and scientific communities are conducive to collaborative research. Divergences could be addressed through reciprocal knowledge transfer activities, which would lead to research that better aligns with the concerns and needs of Indigenous communities.

Les paysages boréaux se transforment sous l’effet des changements climatiques et de l’exploitation des ressources naturelles. Les peuples autochtones, qui entretiennent une relation étroite au territoire, sont exposées à ces changements qui affectent plusieurs aspects de leur vie. La mise en commun des savoirs autochtones et scientifiques peut contribuer à mieux comprendre les effets des changements et à en limiter les conséquences. Cette recherche a été réalisée en partenariat avec la communauté anicinape de Pikogan (Première Nation Abitibiwinni) et la communauté crie d’Oujé-Bougoumou (Ouje-Bougoumou Cree Nation). Toutes deux ont leur territoire situé en forêt boréale au Québec. L’objectif principal était d’analyser les effets cumulatifs des changements environnementaux sur les paysages boréaux depuis la frontière entre les systèmes de connaissances autochtones et scientifiques. Les objectifs spécifiques étaient de (1) conceptualiser la valeur des paysages autochtones et ses déterminants; (2) concevoir un « objet frontière » qui fait le pont entre les perspectives autochtone et scientifique; (3) faire le portrait de l’état actuel du territoire; (4) mettre en commun les projections d’un modèle de simulation des paysages forestiers et les savoirs d’experts autochtones dans un modèle probabiliste; et (5) projeter les effets cumulatifs des changements environnementaux sur la valeur des paysages autochtones. La méthodologie est de type séquentiel mixte. D’abord, des données qualitatives ont été recueillies à partir d’entrevues semi-dirigées et d’exercices de cartographie participative avec les experts autochtones de l’utilisation du territoire des deux communautés partenaires. Des analyses thématiques ont fait émerger un cadre d’analyse de la valeur des paysages. Les données terrain ont ensuite été combinées à des données bibliométriques afin de synthétiser les perspectives autochtone et

scientifique sous la forme de modèles conceptuels de type Driver Pressure State Impact

(DPSI). Des indicateurs quantitatifs de l’état du territoire ont été développés et utilisés

pour construire une typologie des terrains de trappe familiaux. Enfin les paysages

forestiers ont été simulés selon divers scénarios de foresterie et de changements

climatiques dans le modèle de simulation des paysages forestiers LANDIS-II. Les

projections ont été soumises au jugement des experts autochtones de l’utilisation du

territoire lors d’ateliers d’élicitation de probabilités conditionnelles. Les projections du

modèle et les jugements d’experts ont été intégrés dans un réseau bayésien. Les résultats sont présentés dans quatre articles scientifiques (Chapitres II à V). Le

cadre d’analyse développé aborde la valeur des paysages en fonction de son potentiel

à soutenir les pratiques importantes pour les communautés : la chasse à l’orignal, la

chasse à l’outarde, la pêche, la trappe, le ressourcement et l’éducation (Chapitre II). La

valeur du paysage y est décrite en quatre dimensions, soit l’abondance des ressources,

l’accès au territoire, la qualité des ressources et l’appréciation de l’expérience vécue

sur le territoire. Les convergences et les complémentarités entre les perspectives autochtone et

scientifique ont été identifiées en comparant les modèles DPSI (Chapitre III).

L’influence de la récolte ligneuse, de la sylviculture et des changements dans la répartition des espèces, ainsi que la structure d’âge de la forêt, la santé de la faune et la qualité de l’eau sont ressortis comme des intérêts convergents. Un intérêt plus grand pour les effets des mines, des lignes à haute-tension et des chemins forestiers est ressorti du modèle autochtone. Un intérêt plus grand pour les changements climatiques,

les incendies forestiers, l’état des sols forestiers et la diversité biologique est ressorti

du modèle scientifique.

Quatre types de terrains de trappe ont été décrits à partir d’indicateurs quantitatifs

(Chapitre IV). Les indicateurs comprennent par exemple la proportion de forêts

matures, la densité du réseau routier et la proportion de forêts issues de reboisement.

La typologie indique que les stratégies d’aménagement du territoire tendent à creuser les écarts entre l’état des terrains de trappe familiaux au sein d’une même communauté. Les projections du modèle LANDIS-II indiquent que sous les effets cumulatifs des

changements environnementaux, les paysages font face à une transition rapide vers des forêts plus jeunes et plus feuillues (Chapitre V). Les changements sont attribuables à l’action combinée des changements climatiques, de la récolte ligneuse et de l’augmentation de l’activité des incendies forestiers dans certaines régions.

L’abondance des animaux à fourrure pour la trappe (particulièrement de la martre), de l’orignal pour la chasse et des lieux de ressourcement seraient parmi les valeurs les plus vulnérables.

Les contributions de cette recherche à l’avancement des connaissances s’inscrivent

dans trois domaines des sciences de l’environnement. (1) Le cadre d’analyse de la

valeur des paysages développé est à la fois cohérent avec les préoccupations et savoirs

des communautés et assez général pour guider d’autres recherches et études d’impacts dans des contextes similaires. (2) Cette recherche contribue au développement de la recherche collaborative en contexte autochtone. L’originalité des travaux réside dans la combinaison des approches et des méthodes, notamment le développement des perspectives et la cocréation des connaissances. (3) La méthode développée pour évaluer les effets cumulatifs des changements environnementaux en mettant en commun les savoirs autochtones et scientifiques est originale et novatrice. Elle ouvre la voie à une intégration plus riche de diverses formes de connaissances dans les modèles environnementaux.

Les résultats présentés sont utiles aux communautés autochtones pour guider la mise en place de mesures d’atténuation et d’adaptation. Ils mettent en évidence l’importance de considérer l’échelle du terrain de trappe dans l’aménagement du territoire et appuient la nécessité de diminuer l’influence de la foresterie sur les paysages. Ces travaux encouragent l’engagement des institutions autochtones et de recherche dans des partenariats et suggèrent quelques éléments facilitant la collaboration.

Climate change and natural resource extraction are transforming boreal forest landscapes, with effects on Indigenous people’s relationship with the land. Collaborative management could enhance the consideration of Indigenous perspectives and limit negative outcomes of environmental change, but it remains the exception rather than the norm. We addressed barriers to involvement of Indigenous people in land management by developing a method to enhance communication and trust, while favouring bottom-up decision-making. We partnered with the Abitibiwinni and Ouje-Bougoumou First Nations (boreal Quebec, Canada) (i) to develop indicators of Indigenous landscape state, (ii) to create a typology of Indigenous hunting grounds, and (iii) to suggest guidelines for sustainable land management in Indigenous contexts. Through participatory mapping and semidirected interviews with 23 local experts, we identified factors influencing Indigenous landscape value. Using open-access data, we developed indicators to measure landscape state according to those values. We identified four types of hunting grounds with k-means clustering, based upon biophysical factors and disturbance history. Our results suggest that land management should aim to reduce differences between hunting ground states and consider the risk of rapid shifts from one state to another.

The well-being of Indigenous people relies on a deep and complex relationship with the land. The consequences of environmental changes on landscape value need to be addressed from an Indigenous perspective. To this end, the ecosystem services framework is a good starting point as it is comprehensive, bridges a number of disciplines and is acknowledged by decision-makers. However, ecosystem services face contextual limitations when used for landscape valuation in Indigenous contexts. In collaboration with two First Nations in boreal Quebec (Canada), we revisited the ecosystem services framework so that it better corresponds to Indigenous values and perspectives. We elicited value related to six landscape practices (moose and goose hunting, trapping, fishing, education and ressourcement) using semi-structured interviews and participatory mapping. Participants had to locate on a map and discuss places of high and low value for each landscape practice and for future generations. Four dimensions of landscape value emerged from thematic analysis: abundance, quality, access and experience. Landscapes contribute to the well-being of Indigenous people by sustaining livelihood, culture and identity. We developed a landscape valuation framework that is consistent with Indigenous people's relationship with the land. The framework can guide landscape management towards sustainable Indigenous landscapes.

Over the past two decades, partial harvesting has been increasingly used in boreal forests as an alternative to clearcutting to promote irregular stand structures and maintain a balance between biodiversity preservation and continued timber production. However, relatively little is still known about the silvicultural potential of partial harvesting in Canada’s boreal forest, especially in areas prone to organic matter accumulation (paludification), and most prior research has focused on biodiversity responses. In this study, we assess the effects of partial harvesting on stand development (recruitment, growth, and mortality) ten years after harvesting in previously unmanaged black spruce stands and quantify its effectiveness in reducing the impacts on ecosystem structures. Our analyses revealed that pre-harvest stand structure and site characteristics, especially initial basal area, sapling density, tree diameter, and organic layer thickness (OLT) were major factors involved in stand development ten years following these partial harvesting treatments. Depending on pre-harvest structure and site characteristics, partial harvesting can result in either an increase in post-harvest tree recruitment and growth or a loss of stand volume because of standing tree mortality. To increase the chances of partial harvesting success in ensuring an increase in decennial stand yield after harvest in black spruce forest stands, sites prone to paludification (i.e., where OLT >17 cm) should be left unharvested. This study illustrates the importance of taking into account pre-existing structure and site characteristics in the selection of management strategies to maximize the potential of partial harvesting to achieve sustainable forest management in black spruce stands.

Climate change and natural resource exploitation can affect Indigenous people’s well-being by reducing access to ecosystem services, in turn impeding transmission of traditional knowledge and causing mental health problems. We used a questionnaire based on the Environmental Distress Scale (EDS) and the Connor–Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC-10) to examine the impacts of environmental changes on 251 members of four Indigenous communities in the eastern Canadian boreal forest. We also considered the potential mitigating effects of sociodemographic characteristics (i.e., age, gender, parenthood, and time spent on the land) and protective factors (i.e., health, quality of life, resilience, life on the land, life in the community, and support from family and friends). Using linear regression, model selection, and multi-model inference, we show that the felt impacts of environmental changes increased with age but were lower for participants with higher quality of life. The effect of resilience was opposite to expectations: more resilient participants felt more impacts. This could be because less resilient individuals ceased to go on the land when environmental changes exceeded a given threshold; thus, only the most resilient participants could testify to the impacts of acute changes. Further research will be needed to test this hypothesis.

Local people and scientists both hold ecological knowledge, respectively stemming from prolonged day-to-day contact with the environment and from systematic inquiry based on the scientific method. As the complementarity between scientific ecological knowledge (SEK) and local ecological knowledge (LEK) is increasingly acknowledged, LEK is starting to be involved in all branches of ecology, including ecological modeling. However, the integration of both knowledge types into ecological models raises methodological challenges, among which (1) consistency between the degree of LEK involvement and modeling objectives, (2) combination of concepts and methods from natural and social sciences, (3) reliability of the data collection process, and (4) model accuracy. We analyzed how 23 published studies dealt with those issues. We observed LEK reaches its full potential when involved at all steps of the research process. The validity of a modeling exercise is enhanced by an interdisciplinary approach and is jeopardized when LEK elicitation lacks rigor. Bayesian networks and fuzzy rule-based models are well suited to include LEK.