Several recent studies point out that climate change is expected to influence boreal forest succession, disturbances, productivity, and mortality. However, the effect of climate change on those processes and their interactions is poorly understood. We used an ecophysiological-based mechanistic landscape model to study those processes and their interactions and predict the future productivity and composition under climate change scenarios (RCP) for 300 years (2010–2310). The effects of climate change and wildfires on forest composition, biomass carbon sequestration and storage, and mortality were assessed in three management units of Quebec boreal forest, distributed along a longitudinal gradient from west to east: North-of-Quebec (MU1), Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean (MU2), and Côte-Nord region (MU3). Coniferous mortality variation was explained by competitive exclusion and wildfires, which are related to climate change. In the studied MU, we found a decrease in coniferous pure occupancy at the landscape scale and an increase in mixed deciduous forests in MU1 and MU2, and an increase in mixed coniferous, mainly black spruce and balsam fir in MU3. On the other hand, for extreme scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), in the absence of broadleaves dispersal, the open woodland occupancy could increase to more than 8, 22, and 10% in MU1, MU2, and MU3 respectively. Also, climate change might increase overall biomass carbon stock two times for RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios compared to the baseline this may be explained by the extension of the growing season and the reduction of potential cold-temperature injuries. Generally, western regions were more sensitive to climate changes than the eastern regions (MU3), in fact under RCP8.5 biomass carbon stock will be decreasing in the long-term for MU1 compared to the current climate. This study provides a good starting point to support future research on the multiple factors affecting forest C budget under global change.

The boreal forest holds the world's largest soil carbon (C) reservoir. A large portion of it is contained in a thick organic layer originating from the slow decay of bryophytes. Because a thick organic layer slows down tree growth, reduces forest productivity, and thereby reduces the potential wood supply, silvicultural treatments that aim to maintain or restore forest productivity after harvesting often involve mechanical site preparation. However, while these treatments can increase growth and C storage in trees, they can also lead to accelerated decomposition of the soil organic matter, reducing C storage. In this study, we assessed the nine-years effect of two silvicultural treatments on soil C dynamics in forested peatlands of northwestern Quebec, compared to unharvested controls: (1) cut with protection of regeneration and soils (CPRS; low soil disturbance, also called careful logging around advanced growth (CLAAG)), (2) CPRS followed by mechanical site preparation (CPRS + MSP, plowing; severe soil disturbance). The mass loss rate of three bryophytes (Pleurozium schreberi, Sphagnum capillifolium, and Sphagnum fuscum) was measured over two growing seasons together with soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. We also studied the different effects of temperature, water table level, depth, and type of soil layer on mosses decomposition.We observed a significant influence of silvicultural treatments, bryophyte species, and soil layer type (fibric, mesic, humic and mineral) on bryophyte mass loss, which was higher in the CPRS + MSP treatment (21.6 ± 0.13 % standard error) than in control sites (9.5 ± 0.21 %); CPRS alone resulted in an intermediate mass loss of 11.6 ± 0.23 %, for Sphagnum mosses. Bryophyte mass loss was significantly higher in fibric than humic layer. SOC stocks in the uppermost organic soil layer (fibric) were lower in the CPRS + MSP group than in the control group, while the CPRS group was intermediate; however, differences were not statistically significant for the other soil layer and for total SOC. We conclude that while CPRS + MSP accelerates Sphagnum moss decomposition in the topsoil layer, it has limited impact on total soil C stocks that are detectable with stock change methods.

Climate change poses a serious risk to sustainable forest management, particularly in boreal forests where natural disturbances have been projected to become more severe. In three Quebec boreal forest management units, biomass carbon storage under various climate change and management scenarios was projected over 300 years (2010–2310) with a process-based dynamic landscape model (PnET-succession for Landis-II). Several strategies varying in their use of partial cuts and clear cuts, including business as usual (BAU) (clear-cut applied on more than 95% of the managed area), were tested and compared to conservation scenarios (no-harvest). Based on simulation results at the landscape scale, the clearcut-based scenarios such as BAU could result in a decrease of biomass carbon stock by 10 tC ha−1 yr−1 compared to the natural scenario. However, this reduction in carbon stock could be offset in the long term through changes in composition, as clearcut systems promote the expansion of trembling aspen and white birch. In contrast, the use of strategies based on partial cuts on more than 75% or 50% of the managed area was closer to or better than the natural scenario and resulted in greater coniferous cover retention. These strategies seemed to be the best to maximize and stabilize biomass carbon storage and ensure wood supply under different climate change scenarios, yet they would require further access and appropriate infrastructure. Furthermore, these strategies could maintain species compositions and age structures similar to natural scenarios, and thus may consequently help achieve forest ecosystem-based management targets. This study presents promising strategies to guide sustainable forest management in Eastern Canada in the context of climate change.