Dry and warm conditions have exacerbated the occurrence of large and severe wildfires over the past decade in Canada’s Northwest Territories (NT). While temperatures are expected to increase during the 21st century, we lack understanding of how the climate-vegetation-fire nexus might respond. We used a dynamic global vegetation model to project annual burn rates, as well as tree species composition and biomass in the NT during the 21st century using the IPCC’s climate scenarios. Burn rates will decrease in most of the NT by the mid-21st century, concomitant with biomass loss of fire-prone evergreen needleleaf tree species, and biomass increase of broadleaf tree species. The southeastern NT is projected to experience enhanced fire activity by the late 21st century according to scenario RCP4.5, supported by a higher production of flammable evergreen needleleaf biomass. The results underlie the potential for major impacts of climate change on the NT’s terrestrial ecosystems.

Exceptionally large areas burned in 2014 in central Northwest Territories (Canada), leading members of the Tłı̨chǫ First Nation to characterize this year as ‘extreme’. Top-down climatic and bottom-up environmental drivers of fire behavior and areas burned in the boreal forest are relatively well understood, but not the drivers of extreme wildfire years (EWY). We investigated the temporal and spatial distributions of fire regime components (fire occurrence, size, cause, fire season length) on the Tłı̨chǫ territory from 1965 to 2019. We used BioSIM and data from weather stations to interpolate mean weather conditions, fuel moisture content and fire-weather indices for each fire season, and we described the environmental characteristics of burned areas. We identified and characterized EWY, i.e., years exceeding the 80th percentile of annual area burned for the study period. Temperature and fuel moisture were the main drivers of areas burned. Nine EWY occurred from 1965 to 2019, including 2014. Compared to non-EWY, EWY had significantly higher mean temperature (>14.7°C) and exceeded threshold values of Drought Code (>514), Initial Spread Index (>7), and Fire Weather Index (>19). Our results will help limit the effects of EWY on human safety, health and Indigenous livelihoods and lifestyles.

The north-central Canadian boreal forest experienced increased occurrence of large and severe wildfires caused by unusually warm temperatures and drought events during the last decade. It is, however, difficult to assess the exceptional nature of this recent wildfire activity, as few long-term records are available in the area. We analyzed macroscopic sedimentary charcoal from four lakes and pollen grains from one of those lakes to reconstruct long-term fire regimes and vegetation histories in the boreal forest of central Northwest Territories. We used regional estimates of past temperature and hydrological changes to identify the climatic drivers of fire activity over the past 10,000 years. Fires were larger and more severe during warm periods (before ca. 5000 cal yrs. BP and during the last 500 years) and when the forest landscape was characterized by high fuel abundance, especially fire-prone spruce. In contrast, colder conditions combined with landscape opening (i.e., lower fuel abundance) during the Neoglacial (after ca. 5000 cal yrs. BP) were related with a decline in fire size and severity. Fire size and severity increased during the last five centuries, but remained within the Holocene range of variability. According to climatic projections, fire size and severity will likely continue to increase in central Northwest Territories in response to warmer conditions, but precipitation variability, combined with increased abundance of deciduous species or opening of the landscape, could limit fire risk in the future.

Aim

Non?climatic constraints on species northern range boundaries are often overlooked in attempts to predict climate?induced range shifts. Here, we examined the effects of habitat availability and fire disturbance on the distribution of a species that transitions from being common to being found only in marginal populations at the northern boundary of its range.

Location

North?western Quebec, Canada (46–51° N and 74–79° W).

Taxon : Eastern white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.)

Methods

We used forest inventory data (n = 4,987) to characterize white?cedar habitat based on edaphic and topographic conditions at sampled sites along a 600?km latitudinal gradient. Non?metric multidimensional scaling was used to assess habitat similarity of sites in the south, where white?cedar stands are abundant, and sites in the north, where white?cedar stands are rare. We constructed ensemble white cedar distribution models based on habitat variables in the south and compared ensemble forecast projections of white cedar in the north with observed occurrences to determine if habitat availability was limiting. We independently estimated the age of white?cedar stands and adjacent stands without white cedar along the gradient. ANOVA was performed to test the age difference between white?cedar and adjacent stands to determine whether the location of white?cedar stands was influenced by disturbance, primarily stand?replacing fire.

Results

Habitat availability was not limiting the distribution of eastern white cedar at its northern range boundary. White cedar did not occupy most sites with suitable habitat in the north, suggesting that other factors prevent white cedar from establishing more stands northward. White?cedar stands were older than adjacent stands without white cedar all along the gradient, but the difference was more pronounced in the north. This suggests that white?cedar stands in the north are restricted to undisturbed areas.

Main conclusions

Fire disturbance, more than habitat availability, limits the distribution of white cedar at its northern range boundary. Projections of white cedar distribution under climate change that ignore fire could overestimate the ability of warming temperatures to extend its northern range limit.

We evaluated the skills of different palaeofire reconstruction techniques to reconstruct the fire history of a boreal landscape (Russian Karelia) affected by surface fires. The analysis of dated lacustrine sediments from two nearby lakes was compared with independent dendrochronological dating of fire scars, methods which have rarely been used in context of surface fires. We used two sediment sub-sampling volumes (1 and 3.5 cm3, wet volumes) and three methods of calculating the Charcoal Accumulation Rate to reconstruct fire histories: CHAR number, charcoal surface area and estimated charcoal volume. The results show that palaeofire reconstructions obtained with fossil charcoal data from lake sediments and dendrochronology are similar and complementary. Dendrochronological reconstruction of fire scars established 12 fire dates over the past 500 years, and paleo-data from lake sediments identified between 7 and 13 fire events. Several ‘false fire events’ were also recorded in the charcoal chronologies, likely because of errors associated with the estimation of the sediment accumulation rate in the unconsolidated part of the sediment. The number of replicates, that is, number of sub-samples and lakes analyzed, had an effect on the number of identified fire events, whereas no effect was seen in the variation in the analyzed sediment volume or the choice of the charcoal-based metric. Whenever possible, we suggest the use of the dendrochronological data as an independent control for the calibration of charcoal peak series, which helps provide more realistic millennia-long reconstruction of past fire activity. We also argue for the use of 1 cm3 sample volume, a sampling protocol involving sampling of more than one lake, and sufficient number of intra-sample replicates to achieve skilful reconstructions of past fire activity.

Wildland fire is the most important disturbance in the boreal forests of eastern North America, shaping the floral composition, structure and spatial arrangement. Although the long-term evolution of the frequency and quantity of burned biomass in these forests can be estimated from paleo-ecological studies, we know little about the evolution of fire sizes. We have therefore developed a methodological approach that provides insights into the processes and changes involved over time in the historical fire-vegetation-climate environment of the coniferous forests (CF) and mixedwood forests (MF) of eastern boreal North America, paying particular attention to the metric of fire size. Lacustrine charcoal particles sequestered in sediments from MF and CF regions were analyzed to reconstruct changes in estimated burned biomass, fire frequency, and their ratio interpreted as fire size (FS-index), over the last 7,000 years. A fire propagation model was used to simulate past fire sizes using both a reference landscape, where MF and CF compositions over time were prescribed using pollen reconstructions, and climate inputs provided by the HadCM3BL-M1 snapshot simulations. Lacustrine charcoals showed that Holocene FS-indices did not differ significantly between MF and CF because of the high variability in fire frequencies. However, the estimated burned biomass from MF was always lower than that from CF, significantly so since 5,000 BP. Beyond the variability, the FS-index was lower in MF than CF throughout the Holocene, with slight changes in both forests from 7,000 to 1,000 BP, and simultaneous increases over the last millennium. The fire model showed that MF fires were consistently smaller than CF fires throughout the Holocene, with larger differences in the past than today. The fire model also highlighted the fact that spring fires in both forest types have always been larger than summer fires over the last 7,000 years, which concurs with present-day fire statistics. This study illustrates how fire models, built and used today for forecasting and firefighting, can also be used to enhance our understanding of past conditions within the fire-vegetation-climate nexus.

Identifying geochemical paleo?proxies of vegetation type in watersheds could become a powerful tool for paleoecological studies of ecosystem dynamics, particularly when commonly used proxies, such as pollen grains, are not suitable. In order to identify new paleological proxies to distinguish ecosystem types in lake records, we investigated the differences in the sediment geochemistry of lakes surrounded by two boreal forest ecosystems dominated by the same tree species: closed?canopy black spruce?moss forests (MF) and open?canopy black spruce?lichen woodlands (LW). This study was designed as a first calibration step between terrestrial modern soils and lacustrine sediments (0–1000 cal yr BP) on six lake watersheds. In a previous study, differences in the physical and geochemical properties of forest soils had been observed between these two modern ecosystems. Here we show that the geochemical properties of the sediments varied between the six lakes studied. While we did not identify geochemical indicators that could solely distinguish both ecosystem types in modern sediments, we observed intriguing differences in concentrations of C:N ratio, carbon isotopic ratio, and aluminum oxide species, and in the stabilization of their geochemical properties with depth. The C accumulation rates at millennial scale were significantly higher in MF watersheds than in LW watersheds. We suggest that these variations could result from organic matter inflows that fluctuate depending on forest density and ground vegetation cover. Further investigations on these highlighted geochemistry markers need to be performed to confirm whether they can be used to detect shifts in vegetation conditions that have occurred in the past.

Context
The Canadian boreal forest provides valuable ecosystem services that are regionally and globally significant. Despite its importance, the future of the Canadian boreal forest is highly uncertain because potential impacts of future climate change on ecosystem processes and biomass stocks are poorly understood.

Objectives
We investigate how anticipated climatic changes in coming decades could trigger abrupt changes in the biomass of dominant species in Canada's boreal forests. Methods Using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-LMfire, which was parameterized for the dominant tree genera in Canada's boreal forests (Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus) and driven by a large range of climate scenarios grouped by two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), we simulated forest composition, biomass, and the frequency of disturbance, including wildfire, from Manitoba to Newfoundland.

Results
Results suggest that responses of this region to a warmer future climate will be very important, especially in southern boreal areas and under the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario. In these areas, reductions of total aboveground biomass incurred by fire and heat-induced tree mortality events are projected; the fertilizing effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 on forest productivity is unlikely to compensate for these losses. Decreases in total forest stocks would likely be associated with forest cover loss and a shift in composition in particular from needleleaf evergreen (softwood) to broadleaf deciduous (hardwood) taxa.

Conclusion
The simulated future reduction in softwood biomass suggests that forest management strategies will have to be adapted to maintain a sustainable level of forest harvest and tree density that meets demands for wood products, while maintaining other ecosystem services.

Wildland fires are the main natural disturbance shaping forest structure and composition in eastern boreal Canada. On average, more than 700?000?ha of forest burns annually and causes as much as CAD 2.9 million worth of damage. Although we know that occurrence of fires depends upon the coincidence of favourable conditions for fire ignition, propagation, and fuel availability, the interplay between these three drivers in shaping spatiotemporal patterns of fires in eastern Canada remains to be evaluated. The goal of this study was to reconstruct the spatiotemporal patterns of fire activity during the last century in eastern Canada's boreal forest as a function of changes in lightning ignition, climate, and vegetation. We addressed this objective using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-LMfire, which we parametrized for four plant functional types (PFTs) that correspond to the prevalent tree genera in eastern boreal Canada (Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus). LPJ-LMfire was run with a monthly time step from 1901 to 2012 on a 10?km2 resolution grid covering the boreal forest from Manitoba to Newfoundland. Outputs of LPJ-LMfire were analyzed in terms of fire frequency, net primary productivity (NPP), and aboveground biomass. The predictive skills of LPJ-LMfire were examined by comparing our simulations of annual burn rates and biomass with independent data sets. The simulation adequately reproduced the latitudinal gradient in fire frequency in Manitoba and the longitudinal gradient from Manitoba towards southern Ontario, as well as the temporal patterns present in independent fire histories. However, the simulation led to the underestimation and overestimation of fire frequency at both the northern and southern limits of the boreal forest in Québec. The general pattern of simulated total tree biomass also agreed well with observations, with the notable exception of overestimated biomass at the northern treeline, mainly for PFT Picea. In these northern areas, the predictive ability of LPJ-LMfire is likely being affected by the low density of weather stations, which leads to underestimation of the strength of fire–weather interactions and, therefore, vegetation consumption during extreme fire years. Agreement between the spatiotemporal patterns of fire frequency and the observed data across a vast portion of the study area confirmed that fire therein is strongly ignition limited. A drier climate coupled with an increase in lightning frequency during the second half of the 20th century notably led to an increase in fire activity. Finally, our simulations highlighted the importance of both climate and fire in vegetation: despite an overarching CO2-induced enhancement of NPP in LPJ-LMfire, forest biomass was relatively stable because of the compensatory effects of increasing fire activity.

Global warming could increase climatic instability and large wildfire activity in circumboreal regions, potentially impairing both ecosystem functioning and human health. However, links between large wildfire events and climatic and/or meteorological conditions are still poorly understood, partly because few studies have covered a wide range of past climate-fire interactions. We compared palaeofire and simulated climatic data over the last 7000 years to assess causes of large wildfire events in three coniferous boreal forest regions in north-eastern Canada. These regions span an east-west cline, from a hilly region influenced by the Atlantic Ocean currently dominated by Picea mariana and Abies balsamea to a flatter continental region dominated by Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana. The largest wildfires occurred across the entire study zone between 3000 and 1000 cal. BP. In western and central continental regions these events were triggered by increases in both the fire-season length and summer/spring temperatures, while in the eastern region close to the ocean they were likely responses to hydrological (precipitation/evapotranspiration) variability. The impact of climatic drivers on fire size varied spatially across the study zone, confirming that regional climate dynamics could modulate effects of global climate change on wildfire regimes.