Dry and warm conditions have exacerbated the occurrence of large and severe wildfires over the past decade in Canada’s Northwest Territories (NT). While temperatures are expected to increase during the 21st century, we lack understanding of how the climate-vegetation-fire nexus might respond. We used a dynamic global vegetation model to project annual burn rates, as well as tree species composition and biomass in the NT during the 21st century using the IPCC’s climate scenarios. Burn rates will decrease in most of the NT by the mid-21st century, concomitant with biomass loss of fire-prone evergreen needleleaf tree species, and biomass increase of broadleaf tree species. The southeastern NT is projected to experience enhanced fire activity by the late 21st century according to scenario RCP4.5, supported by a higher production of flammable evergreen needleleaf biomass. The results underlie the potential for major impacts of climate change on the NT’s terrestrial ecosystems.

Exceptionally large areas burned in 2014 in central Northwest Territories (Canada), leading members of the Tłı̨chǫ First Nation to characterize this year as ‘extreme’. Top-down climatic and bottom-up environmental drivers of fire behavior and areas burned in the boreal forest are relatively well understood, but not the drivers of extreme wildfire years (EWY). We investigated the temporal and spatial distributions of fire regime components (fire occurrence, size, cause, fire season length) on the Tłı̨chǫ territory from 1965 to 2019. We used BioSIM and data from weather stations to interpolate mean weather conditions, fuel moisture content and fire-weather indices for each fire season, and we described the environmental characteristics of burned areas. We identified and characterized EWY, i.e., years exceeding the 80th percentile of annual area burned for the study period. Temperature and fuel moisture were the main drivers of areas burned. Nine EWY occurred from 1965 to 2019, including 2014. Compared to non-EWY, EWY had significantly higher mean temperature (>14.7°C) and exceeded threshold values of Drought Code (>514), Initial Spread Index (>7), and Fire Weather Index (>19). Our results will help limit the effects of EWY on human safety, health and Indigenous livelihoods and lifestyles.

The north-central Canadian boreal forest experienced increased occurrence of large and severe wildfires caused by unusually warm temperatures and drought events during the last decade. It is, however, difficult to assess the exceptional nature of this recent wildfire activity, as few long-term records are available in the area. We analyzed macroscopic sedimentary charcoal from four lakes and pollen grains from one of those lakes to reconstruct long-term fire regimes and vegetation histories in the boreal forest of central Northwest Territories. We used regional estimates of past temperature and hydrological changes to identify the climatic drivers of fire activity over the past 10,000 years. Fires were larger and more severe during warm periods (before ca. 5000 cal yrs. BP and during the last 500 years) and when the forest landscape was characterized by high fuel abundance, especially fire-prone spruce. In contrast, colder conditions combined with landscape opening (i.e., lower fuel abundance) during the Neoglacial (after ca. 5000 cal yrs. BP) were related with a decline in fire size and severity. Fire size and severity increased during the last five centuries, but remained within the Holocene range of variability. According to climatic projections, fire size and severity will likely continue to increase in central Northwest Territories in response to warmer conditions, but precipitation variability, combined with increased abundance of deciduous species or opening of the landscape, could limit fire risk in the future.

Aim

Non?climatic constraints on species northern range boundaries are often overlooked in attempts to predict climate?induced range shifts. Here, we examined the effects of habitat availability and fire disturbance on the distribution of a species that transitions from being common to being found only in marginal populations at the northern boundary of its range.

Location

North?western Quebec, Canada (46–51° N and 74–79° W).

Taxon : Eastern white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.)

Methods

We used forest inventory data (n = 4,987) to characterize white?cedar habitat based on edaphic and topographic conditions at sampled sites along a 600?km latitudinal gradient. Non?metric multidimensional scaling was used to assess habitat similarity of sites in the south, where white?cedar stands are abundant, and sites in the north, where white?cedar stands are rare. We constructed ensemble white cedar distribution models based on habitat variables in the south and compared ensemble forecast projections of white cedar in the north with observed occurrences to determine if habitat availability was limiting. We independently estimated the age of white?cedar stands and adjacent stands without white cedar along the gradient. ANOVA was performed to test the age difference between white?cedar and adjacent stands to determine whether the location of white?cedar stands was influenced by disturbance, primarily stand?replacing fire.

Results

Habitat availability was not limiting the distribution of eastern white cedar at its northern range boundary. White cedar did not occupy most sites with suitable habitat in the north, suggesting that other factors prevent white cedar from establishing more stands northward. White?cedar stands were older than adjacent stands without white cedar all along the gradient, but the difference was more pronounced in the north. This suggests that white?cedar stands in the north are restricted to undisturbed areas.

Main conclusions

Fire disturbance, more than habitat availability, limits the distribution of white cedar at its northern range boundary. Projections of white cedar distribution under climate change that ignore fire could overestimate the ability of warming temperatures to extend its northern range limit.

We evaluated the skills of different palaeofire reconstruction techniques to reconstruct the fire history of a boreal landscape (Russian Karelia) affected by surface fires. The analysis of dated lacustrine sediments from two nearby lakes was compared with independent dendrochronological dating of fire scars, methods which have rarely been used in context of surface fires. We used two sediment sub-sampling volumes (1 and 3.5 cm3, wet volumes) and three methods of calculating the Charcoal Accumulation Rate to reconstruct fire histories: CHAR number, charcoal surface area and estimated charcoal volume. The results show that palaeofire reconstructions obtained with fossil charcoal data from lake sediments and dendrochronology are similar and complementary. Dendrochronological reconstruction of fire scars established 12 fire dates over the past 500 years, and paleo-data from lake sediments identified between 7 and 13 fire events. Several ‘false fire events’ were also recorded in the charcoal chronologies, likely because of errors associated with the estimation of the sediment accumulation rate in the unconsolidated part of the sediment. The number of replicates, that is, number of sub-samples and lakes analyzed, had an effect on the number of identified fire events, whereas no effect was seen in the variation in the analyzed sediment volume or the choice of the charcoal-based metric. Whenever possible, we suggest the use of the dendrochronological data as an independent control for the calibration of charcoal peak series, which helps provide more realistic millennia-long reconstruction of past fire activity. We also argue for the use of 1 cm3 sample volume, a sampling protocol involving sampling of more than one lake, and sufficient number of intra-sample replicates to achieve skilful reconstructions of past fire activity.

Wildland fire is the most important disturbance in the boreal forests of eastern North America, shaping the floral composition, structure and spatial arrangement. Although the long-term evolution of the frequency and quantity of burned biomass in these forests can be estimated from paleo-ecological studies, we know little about the evolution of fire sizes. We have therefore developed a methodological approach that provides insights into the processes and changes involved over time in the historical fire-vegetation-climate environment of the coniferous forests (CF) and mixedwood forests (MF) of eastern boreal North America, paying particular attention to the metric of fire size. Lacustrine charcoal particles sequestered in sediments from MF and CF regions were analyzed to reconstruct changes in estimated burned biomass, fire frequency, and their ratio interpreted as fire size (FS-index), over the last 7,000 years. A fire propagation model was used to simulate past fire sizes using both a reference landscape, where MF and CF compositions over time were prescribed using pollen reconstructions, and climate inputs provided by the HadCM3BL-M1 snapshot simulations. Lacustrine charcoals showed that Holocene FS-indices did not differ significantly between MF and CF because of the high variability in fire frequencies. However, the estimated burned biomass from MF was always lower than that from CF, significantly so since 5,000 BP. Beyond the variability, the FS-index was lower in MF than CF throughout the Holocene, with slight changes in both forests from 7,000 to 1,000 BP, and simultaneous increases over the last millennium. The fire model showed that MF fires were consistently smaller than CF fires throughout the Holocene, with larger differences in the past than today. The fire model also highlighted the fact that spring fires in both forest types have always been larger than summer fires over the last 7,000 years, which concurs with present-day fire statistics. This study illustrates how fire models, built and used today for forecasting and firefighting, can also be used to enhance our understanding of past conditions within the fire-vegetation-climate nexus.

Identifying geochemical paleo?proxies of vegetation type in watersheds could become a powerful tool for paleoecological studies of ecosystem dynamics, particularly when commonly used proxies, such as pollen grains, are not suitable. In order to identify new paleological proxies to distinguish ecosystem types in lake records, we investigated the differences in the sediment geochemistry of lakes surrounded by two boreal forest ecosystems dominated by the same tree species: closed?canopy black spruce?moss forests (MF) and open?canopy black spruce?lichen woodlands (LW). This study was designed as a first calibration step between terrestrial modern soils and lacustrine sediments (0–1000 cal yr BP) on six lake watersheds. In a previous study, differences in the physical and geochemical properties of forest soils had been observed between these two modern ecosystems. Here we show that the geochemical properties of the sediments varied between the six lakes studied. While we did not identify geochemical indicators that could solely distinguish both ecosystem types in modern sediments, we observed intriguing differences in concentrations of C:N ratio, carbon isotopic ratio, and aluminum oxide species, and in the stabilization of their geochemical properties with depth. The C accumulation rates at millennial scale were significantly higher in MF watersheds than in LW watersheds. We suggest that these variations could result from organic matter inflows that fluctuate depending on forest density and ground vegetation cover. Further investigations on these highlighted geochemistry markers need to be performed to confirm whether they can be used to detect shifts in vegetation conditions that have occurred in the past.

Context
The Canadian boreal forest provides valuable ecosystem services that are regionally and globally significant. Despite its importance, the future of the Canadian boreal forest is highly uncertain because potential impacts of future climate change on ecosystem processes and biomass stocks are poorly understood.

Objectives
We investigate how anticipated climatic changes in coming decades could trigger abrupt changes in the biomass of dominant species in Canada's boreal forests. Methods Using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-LMfire, which was parameterized for the dominant tree genera in Canada's boreal forests (Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus) and driven by a large range of climate scenarios grouped by two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), we simulated forest composition, biomass, and the frequency of disturbance, including wildfire, from Manitoba to Newfoundland.

Results
Results suggest that responses of this region to a warmer future climate will be very important, especially in southern boreal areas and under the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario. In these areas, reductions of total aboveground biomass incurred by fire and heat-induced tree mortality events are projected; the fertilizing effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 on forest productivity is unlikely to compensate for these losses. Decreases in total forest stocks would likely be associated with forest cover loss and a shift in composition in particular from needleleaf evergreen (softwood) to broadleaf deciduous (hardwood) taxa.

Conclusion
The simulated future reduction in softwood biomass suggests that forest management strategies will have to be adapted to maintain a sustainable level of forest harvest and tree density that meets demands for wood products, while maintaining other ecosystem services.

Wildland fires are the main natural disturbance shaping forest structure and composition in eastern boreal Canada. On average, more than 700?000?ha of forest burns annually and causes as much as CAD 2.9 million worth of damage. Although we know that occurrence of fires depends upon the coincidence of favourable conditions for fire ignition, propagation, and fuel availability, the interplay between these three drivers in shaping spatiotemporal patterns of fires in eastern Canada remains to be evaluated. The goal of this study was to reconstruct the spatiotemporal patterns of fire activity during the last century in eastern Canada's boreal forest as a function of changes in lightning ignition, climate, and vegetation. We addressed this objective using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-LMfire, which we parametrized for four plant functional types (PFTs) that correspond to the prevalent tree genera in eastern boreal Canada (Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus). LPJ-LMfire was run with a monthly time step from 1901 to 2012 on a 10?km2 resolution grid covering the boreal forest from Manitoba to Newfoundland. Outputs of LPJ-LMfire were analyzed in terms of fire frequency, net primary productivity (NPP), and aboveground biomass. The predictive skills of LPJ-LMfire were examined by comparing our simulations of annual burn rates and biomass with independent data sets. The simulation adequately reproduced the latitudinal gradient in fire frequency in Manitoba and the longitudinal gradient from Manitoba towards southern Ontario, as well as the temporal patterns present in independent fire histories. However, the simulation led to the underestimation and overestimation of fire frequency at both the northern and southern limits of the boreal forest in Québec. The general pattern of simulated total tree biomass also agreed well with observations, with the notable exception of overestimated biomass at the northern treeline, mainly for PFT Picea. In these northern areas, the predictive ability of LPJ-LMfire is likely being affected by the low density of weather stations, which leads to underestimation of the strength of fire–weather interactions and, therefore, vegetation consumption during extreme fire years. Agreement between the spatiotemporal patterns of fire frequency and the observed data across a vast portion of the study area confirmed that fire therein is strongly ignition limited. A drier climate coupled with an increase in lightning frequency during the second half of the 20th century notably led to an increase in fire activity. Finally, our simulations highlighted the importance of both climate and fire in vegetation: despite an overarching CO2-induced enhancement of NPP in LPJ-LMfire, forest biomass was relatively stable because of the compensatory effects of increasing fire activity.

Global warming could increase climatic instability and large wildfire activity in circumboreal regions, potentially impairing both ecosystem functioning and human health. However, links between large wildfire events and climatic and/or meteorological conditions are still poorly understood, partly because few studies have covered a wide range of past climate-fire interactions. We compared palaeofire and simulated climatic data over the last 7000 years to assess causes of large wildfire events in three coniferous boreal forest regions in north-eastern Canada. These regions span an east-west cline, from a hilly region influenced by the Atlantic Ocean currently dominated by Picea mariana and Abies balsamea to a flatter continental region dominated by Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana. The largest wildfires occurred across the entire study zone between 3000 and 1000 cal. BP. In western and central continental regions these events were triggered by increases in both the fire-season length and summer/spring temperatures, while in the eastern region close to the ocean they were likely responses to hydrological (precipitation/evapotranspiration) variability. The impact of climatic drivers on fire size varied spatially across the study zone, confirming that regional climate dynamics could modulate effects of global climate change on wildfire regimes.

At the northernmost extent of the managed forest in Quebec, Canada, the boreal forest is currently undergoing an ecological transition between two forest ecosystems. Open lichen woodlands (LW) are spreading southward at the expense of more productive closed-canopy black spruce–moss forests (MF). The objective of this study was to investigate whether soil properties could distinguish MF from LW in the transition zone where both ecosystem types coexist. This study brings out clear evidence that differences in vegetation cover can lead to significant variations in soil physical and geochemical properties. Here, we showed that soil carbon, exchangeable cations, and iron and aluminium crystallinity vary between boreal closed-canopy forests and open lichen woodlands, likely attributed to variations in soil microclimatic conditions. All the soils studied were typical podzolic soil profiles evolved from glacial till deposits that shared a similar texture of the C layer. However, soil humus and the B layer varied in thickness and chemistry between the two forest ecosystems at the pedon scale. Multivariate analyses of variance were used to evaluate how soil properties could help distinguish the two types at the site scale. MF humus (FH horizons horizons composing the O layer) showed significantly higher concentrations of organic carbon and nitrogen and of the main exchangeable base cations (Ca, Mg) than LW soils. The B horizon of LW sites held higher concentrations of total Al and Fe oxides and particularly greater concentrations of inorganic amorphous Fe oxides than MF mineral soils, while showing a thinner B layer. Overall, our results show that MF store three times more organic carbon in their soils (B+FH horizons, roots apart) than LW. We suggest that variations in soil properties between MF and LW are linked to a cascade of events involving the impacts of natural disturbances such as wildfires on forest regeneration that determines the vegetation structure (stand density) and composition (ground cover type) and their subsequent consequences on soil environmental parameters (moisture, radiation rate, redox conditions, etc.). Our data underline significant differences in soil biogeochemistry under different forest ecosystems and reveal the importance of interactions in the soil–vegetation–climate system for the determination of soil composition.

In boreal ecosystems, wildfire severity (i.e., the extent of fire-related tree mortality) is affected by environmental conditions and fire intensity. A burned area usually includes tree patches that partially or entirely escaped fire. There are two types of post-fire residual patches: (1) patches that only escaped the last fire; and (2) patches with lower fire susceptibility, also called fire refuges, that escaped several consecutive fires, likely due to particular site characteristics. The main objective of this study was to test if particular environmental conditions and stand characteristics could explain the presence of fire refuges in the mixedwood boreal forest. The FlamMap3 fire behavior model running at the landscape scale was used on the present-day Lake Duparquet forest mosaic and on four other experimental scenarios. FlamMap3 was first calibrated using BehavePlus and realistic rates of fire spread obtained from the Canadian Fire Behavior Prediction system. The results, based on thousands of runs, exclude the effects of firebreaks, topography, fuel type, and microtopography to explain the presence of fire refuges, but rather highlight the important role of moisture conditions in the fuel beds. Moist conditions are likely attributed to former small depressions having been filled with organic matter rather than present-day variations in ground surface topography.

Climate, vegetation and humans act on biomass burning at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a dense network of sedimentary charcoal records from eastern Canada to reconstruct regional biomass burning history over the last 7000 years at the scale of four potential vegetation types: open coniferous forest/tundra, boreal coniferous forest, boreal mixedwood forest and temperate forest. The biomass burning trajectories were compared with regional climate trends reconstructed from general circulation models, tree biomass reconstructed from pollen series, and human population densities. We found that non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers acted on regional biomass burning history. In the open coniferous forest/tundra and dense coniferous forest, the regional biomass burning was primarily shaped by gradual establishment of less climate-conducive burning conditions over 5000 years. In the mixed boreal forest an increasing relative proportion of flammable conifers in landscapes since 2000?BP contributed to maintaining biomass burning constant despite climatic conditions less favourable to fires. In the temperate forest, biomass burning was uncoupled with climatic conditions and the main driver was seemingly vegetation until European colonization, i.e. 300?BP. Tree biomass and thus fuel accumulation modulated fire activity, an indication that biomass burning is fuel-dependent and notably upon long-term co-dominance shifts between conifers and broadleaf trees.

Wildfires in boreal forest ecosystems usually spare tree stands called post-fire residual patches. There are two types of post-fire residual patches: (1) patches that only escaped fire by chance, probably due to local meteorological conditions unsuitable for fire spread at the moment fire reached their surroundings (random post-fire residual patches), and (2) patches with lower fire susceptibility, that escaped several consecutive fires, likely due to particular site characteristics (fire refuges). Special conservation efforts could target fire refuges owing to their old age, long ecological continuity, and potential specific biological diversity. Here we compared the stand characteristics of 13 post-fire residual patches from the eastern Canadian boreal mixedwood forest to develop guidelines and information for forest managers to differentiate fire refuges from random post-fire residual patches. Two main structural characteristics differentiated fire refuges from random post-fire residual patches: mean tree diameter and thickness of the soil organic matter layer. Thick organic matter accumulation in fire refuges is likely linked to a paludification process, which in turn reduces stand productivity, and thus, mean tree diameter.

Wildfires in boreal forest ecosystems usually spare tree stands called post-fire residual patches. There are two types of post-fire residual patches: (1) patches that only escaped fire by chance, probably due to local meteorological conditions unsuitable for fire spread at the moment fire reached their surroundings (random post-fire residual patches), and (2) patches with lower fire susceptibility, that escaped several consecutive fires, likely due to particular site characteristics (fire refuges). Special conservation efforts could target fire refuges owing to their old age, long ecological continuity, and potential specific biological diversity. Here we compared the stand characteristics of 13 post-fire residual patches from the eastern Canadian boreal mixedwood forest to develop guidelines and information for forest managers to differentiate fire refuges from random post-fire residual patches. Two main structural characteristics differentiated fire refuges from random post-fire residual patches: mean tree diameter and thickness of the soil organic matter layer. Thick organic matter accumulation in fire refuges is likely linked to a paludification process, which in turn reduces stand productivity, and thus, mean tree diameter.

Fire frequency is expected to increase in boreal forests over the next century owing to climate change. In Quebec (Canada), the location of the northern limit of commercial forests (c. 51 °N) was established in 2000 taking into account mainly forest productivity and fire risk. The location of the limit is currently under debate and is being re-evaluated based on a more extensive survey of the territory. We characterized the natural variability of fire occurrence (FO) in the area surrounding the northern limit, and these results are a useful contribution to discussions on the re-evaluation of its location. Regional FO over the last 7000 years was reconstructed from sedimentary charcoal records from 11 lakes located in three regions surrounding the northern limit (i.e. south, north and near the limit). Holocene simulated precipitation and temperature from a general circulation model (GCM) were used to identify the long-term interactions between climate and fire. Fire histories displayed similar trends in all three regions, with FO increasing from 7000 calibrated years before present (cal. years BP) to reach a maximum at 4000-3000 cal. years BP, before decreasing during the late-Holocene. This trend matches the simulated changes in climate, characterized by drier and warmer conditions between 7000 and 3500 cal. years BP and cooler and moister conditions between 3500 and 0 cal. years BP. Northern ecosystems displayed higher sensitivity to climate change. The natural variability of FO was narrower in the southern region compared with the limit and northern regions. An abrupt decrease in FO was recorded close to and north of the limit at 3000 cal. years BP, whereas the decrease was more gradual in the south. Synthesis and applications. We reconstructed the natural variability in fire activity over the last 7000 years near the current location of the northern limit of commercial forests in Quebec. Fire occurrences were more sensitive to climate change near to and north of the limit of commercial forestry. In the context of predicted increase in fire activity, the lower resilience of northern forests advocates against a northern repositioning of the limit of commercial forests. © 2014 The Authors.

Burned areas in boreal mixedwood forests usually include tree patches that partially or entirely escaped fire. Some of these post-fire residual stands – called fire refuges – can escape several consecutive fires due to particular microsite conditions. Despite their potential importance as biodiversity hotspots, the long-term forest dynamics of fire refuges is unknown. High-resolution analysis of plant macroremains retrieved from forest organic matter profiles sampled in five fire refuges allowed us to describe up to 8000 years of forest dynamics. Our results display the importance of local conditions in forest dynamics. Wildfire was probably prevented by high moisture, as indicated by the presence of aquatic taxa and moisture-tolerant tree species. Lack of stand-replacing fire, coupled with organic matter accumulation, favored the millennial persistence of late-successional tree species. Shifts from spruce/larch dominance to fir/cedar dominance were noted at different occasions during the Holocene, probably resulting from endogenous processes.

• Strategic introduction of less flammable broadleaf vegetation into landscapes was suggested as a management strategy for decreasing the risk of boreal wildfires projected under climatic change. However, the realization and strength of this offsetting effect in an actual environment remain to be demonstrated.
• Here we combined paleoecological data, global climate models and wildfire modelling to assess regional fire frequency (RegFF, i.e. the number of fires through time) in boreal forests as it relates to tree species composition and climate over millennial time-scales.
• Lacustrine charcoals from northern landscapes of eastern boreal Canada indicate that RegFF during the mid-Holocene (6000–3000 yr ago) was significantly higher than pre-industrial RegFF (ad c. 1750). In southern landscapes, RegFF was not significantly higher than the pre-industrial RegFF in spite of the declining drought severity. The modelling experiment indicates that the high fire risk brought about by a warmer and drier climate in the south during the mid-Holocene was offset by a higher broadleaf component.
• Our data highlight an important function for broadleaf vegetation in determining boreal RegFF in a warmer climate. We estimate that its feedback may be large enough to offset the projected climate change impacts on drought conditions.

In this era of climate change, understanding past and predicting future fire activity are scientific challenges that are central to the development of sustainable forest management practices and policies. Such objectives, however, are difficult to achieve for several reasons. Uncertainties about future fire activity can be superimposed on the short time period covered by existing meteorological data and fire statistics, from which a historical range of variability can be determined. Regional fire activity is also tremendously variable over time, such that contemporary fire records cannot provide information on the full range of fire activity variability a given forest experienced and adapted to. This factor is increasingly important when it comes to determining the resilience of boreal forests to changes in climate and disturbance regimes. In this paper, we present a synthesis of past, present and future trends in seasonal fire danger and fire activity based on data gathered in eastern Canadian boreal forests over the last 20 years, and we provide a critical assessment of the ability to conduct sustainable forest management over the 21st century. The data synthesis provides compelling evidence of a synchronous pattern of decreasing fire-conducive climatic conditions and activity of large fire seasons over the last 2000 years in the eastern coniferous boreal forest. Model simulations suggest that the climate will become drier in upcoming decades, driving future fire activity close to the upper bound of the pre-industrial range of variability. The effects of increasing fire incidence cumulated with forest harvesting may thus pose a risk to forest resilience in the future. This ecological knowledge should help us to define forest management strategies and practices considering future fire activity changes forecasted under climate change. Development of alternative silvicultural interventions that would emulate secondary disturbances (e.g. wind, insects) rather than fire would be necessary to maintain pre-industrial forest characteristics (e.g. composition and age class distribution), and associated forest resilience.

Wildfire activity in North American boreal forests increased during the last decades of the 20th century, partly owing to ongoing human-caused climatic changes. How these changes affect regional fire regimes (annual area burned, seasonality, and number, size, and severity of fires) remains uncertain as data available to explore fire–climate–vegetation interactions have limited temporal depth. Here we present a Holocene reconstruction of fire regime, combining lacustrine charcoal analyses with past drought and fire-season length simulations to elucidate the mechanisms linking long-term fire regime and climatic changes. We decomposed fire regime into fire frequency (FF) and biomass burned (BB) and recombined these into a new index to assess fire size (FS) fluctuations. Results indicated that an earlier termination of the fire season, due to decreasing summer radiative insolation and increasing precipitation over the last 7.0 ky, induced a sharp decrease in FF and BB ca. 3.0 kyBP toward the present. In contrast, a progressive increase of FS was recorded, which is most likely related to a gradual increase in temperatures during the spring fire season. Continuing climatic warming could lead to a change in the fire regime toward larger spring wildfires in eastern boreal North America.

Wildfire simulations were carried out using the Prescribed Fire Analysis System (PFAS) to study the effect of landscape composition on fire sizes in eastern Canadian boreal forests. We used the Lake Duparquet forest as reference, plus 13 forest mosaic scenarios whose compositions reflected lengths of fire cycle. Three fire weather risks based on duff moisture were used. We performed 100 simulations per risk and mosaic, with topography and hydrology set constant for the reference. Results showed that both weather and landscape composition significantly influenced fire sizes. Weather related to fire propagation explained almost 79% of the variance, while landscape composition and weather conditions for ignition explained ~14 and 2% respectively. In terms of landscape, burned area increased with increasing presence of shade-tolerant species, which are related to long fire cycles. Comparisons among the distributions of cumulated area burned from scenarios plus those from the Société de Protection des Forêts contre le Feu database archives showed that PFAS simulated realistic fire sizes using the 80–100% class of probable fire extent. Future analyses would best be performed on a larger region as the limited size of the study area could not capture fires larger than 11 000 ha, which represent 3% of fires but 65% of the total area burned at the provincial scale.

With the emergence of a new forest management paradigm based on the emulation of natural disturbance regimes, interest in fire-related studies has increased in the boreal forest management community. A key issue in this regard is the improvement of our understanding of the variability in past disturbances and its linkages with climate and ecosystems. The surge in research activity has further been exacerbated by the increasing awareness of climate change, which has already exposed boreal forests to greater fire risk in recent decades. It is anticipated that further warming and drying will further enhance fire frequency and area burned in many boreal forests. Better predictions of future fire activity will contribute to better long-term forest planning in managed boreal forests. The 12 papers presented in this special issue exemplify this increased research activity by bringing together studies from diverse disciplines and presenting the latest advances regarding methodological approaches for reconstruction and modelling of past, present and future fire activity. Here we aim to summarise, evaluate and set into context some of the new insights arising from these studies and also to discuss some considerations to be taken into account in future research activities.

We present here a 7000-year wildfire reconstruction based on sedimentary charcoal series from five lakes located south of Hudson Bay in eastern boreal North America. The reconstruction shows a significant downward trend in the frequency of large fires from 0.0061 fire·yr⁻¹ ca. 5000 cal yr BP to 0.0033 fire·yr⁻¹ at present. Simulations of fire-season climate based on UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme output and reconstructions based on proxy data both indicate a shift toward increasing available moisture in the region between the mid-Holocene and today. We infer that the diminishing trend in wildfire activity was ultimately caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insolation. Future higher temperatures not compensated for by significant precipitation increases will bring fire frequency back toward its upper limit, recorded between 6000 and 2000 cal yr BP.

We investigated changes in wildfire risk over the 1901−2002 (ad) period with an analysis of broad-scale patterns of July monthly drought code (MDC) variability on 28 forested ecoregions of the North American and Eurasian continents. The MDC is an estimate of the net effect of changes in evapotranspiration and precipitation on cumulative moisture depletion in soils, and is well correlated with annual fire statistics across the circumboreal (explaining 25–61% of the variance in regional area burned). We used linear trend and regime shift analyses to investigate (multi-) decadal changes in MDC and percentage area affected by drought, and kernel function for analysis of temporal changes in the occurrence rates of extreme drought years. Our analyses did not reveal widespread patterns of linear increases in dryness through time as a response to rising Northern Hemisphere land temperatures. Instead, we found heterogeneous patterns of drought severity changes that were inherent to the nonuniformly distributed impacts of climate change on dryness. Notably, significant trends toward increasing summer moisture in southeastern and southwestern boreal Canada were detected. The diminishing wildfire risk in these regions is coherent with widely reported decreases in area burned since about 1850, as reconstructed by dendrochronological dating of forest stands. Conversely, we found evidence for increasing percentage area affected by extreme droughts in Eurasia (+0.57% per decade; P<0.05) and occurrence rates of extreme drought years in Eurasian taiga (centered principally on the Okhotsk–Manchurian taiga, P=0.07). Although not statistically significant, temporal changes in occurrence rates are sufficiently important spatially to be paid further attention. The absence of a linear trend in MDC severity, in conjunction with the presence of an increase in the occurrence rate of extreme drought years, suggest that fire disturbance regimes in the Eurasian taiga could be shifting toward being increasingly pulse dependent.

We investigated changes in wildfire risk over the 19012002 (AD) period with an analysis of broad-scale patterns of July monthly drought code (MDC) variability on 28 forested ecoregions of the North American and Eurasian continents. The MDC is an estimate of the net effect of changes in evapotranspiration and precipitation on cumulative moisture depletion in soils, and is well correlated with annual fire statistics across the circumboreal (explaining 25–61% of the variance in regional area burned).We used linear trend and regime shift analyses to investigate (multi-) decadal changes in MDC and percentage area affected by drought, and kernel function for analysis of temporal changes in the occurrence rates of extreme drought years. Our analyses did not reveal widespread patterns of linear increases in dryness through time as a response to rising Northern Hemisphere land temperatures. Instead, we found heterogeneous patterns of drought severity changes that were inherent to the nonuniformly distributed impacts of climate change on dryness. Notably, significant trends toward increasing summer moisture in southeastern and southwestern boreal Canada were detected. The diminishing wildfire risk in these regions is coherent with widely reported decreases in area burned since about 1850, as reconstructed by dendrochronological dating of forest stands. Conversely, we found evidence for increasing percentage area affected by extreme droughts in Eurasia (10.57% per decade; Po0.05) and occurrence rates of extreme drought years in Eurasian taiga (centered principally on the Okhotsk–Manchurian taiga, P50.07). Although not statistically significant, temporal changes in occurrence rates are sufficiently important spatially to be paid further attention. The absence of a linear trend in MDC severity, in conjunction with the presence of an increase in the occurrence rate of extreme drought years, suggest that fire disturbance regimes in the Eurasian taiga could be shifting toward being increasingly pulse dependent.

We modeled tree mortality three months after a wildfire in the mixed-wood boreal forest (Quebec, Canada) using data from 1963 trees in 36 stands burned under a wide range of fire behavior conditions during the 1997 Val Paradis fire. Stand composition influenced the char height: height of burn was lower in deciduous stands than mixed or coniferous stands. Analysis of species mortality rates revealed that Populus tremuloides Michx. Was the least fire-resistant species, whereas Picea mariana Moench and Pinus banksiana Lamb. Were the most resistant species. Efficient interactions for conifers exist between crown and cambial resistance to injury and fire behavior, as diameter at breast height (DBH), total tree height (TOTH), and mean bark thickness are characteristic variables throughout the fire behavior range. The best logistic regressions, relating probability of wildfire-induced mortality to morphology and fire variables, always entered char height (CH) at the first step of the stepwise procedure, followed by a morphological variable (DBH or TOTH). The Kappa coefficient used for model validations revealed that logistic regressions using morphologic and fire variables were very efficient as compared to logistic regressions based only on morphologic variables. Potential applications of these results by land managers are discussed.

Quantities and structural characteristics of coarse woody debris (CWD) (logs and snags) were examined in relation to stand age and composition in the Canadian mixedwood boreal forest. Forty-eight stands originating after fire (from 32 to 236 years) were sampled on mesic clay deposits. The point-centered quadrant method was used to record canopy composition and structure (living trees and snags). The line-intersect method was used to sample logs of all diameters. Total log load, mean snag density, and volume per stand were similar to other boreal stands. Linear and nonlinear regressions showed that time since fire and canopy composition were significant descriptors for log load changes, whereas time since fire was the only significant factor for snag changes. Coarse woody debris accumulation models through time since fire were different from the U-shaped model because the first initial decrease from residual pre-disturbance debris was missing, the involved species had rapid decay rates with no long-term accumulation, and the succession occurred from species replacement through time. ©2000 NRC Canada

La mosaïque de la forêt boréale mixte canadienne est constituée de peuplements feuillus, mélangés, et résineux, dont la composition, la structure, et l'agencement spatial résultent principalement de l'impact des incendies naturels successifs. Or, peu d’informations existent sur les facteurs responsables du départ d’un feu, sur le comportement du feu pendant l’incendie, ni sur les facteurs influençant la mortalité post-incendie dans cet écosystème. Pourtant, la compréhension des incendies est primordiale dans l'optique d'une gestion durable écosystémique des forêts inspirée des perturbations naturelles. Cette thèse a pour objectifs de caractériser la végétation et le climat en tant que facteurs de l’environnement du feu, d’analyser leurs rôles dans le comportement du feu, et d'étudier la mortalité post-incendie des principales essences de la forêt boréale mixte.

L’hypothèse générale est que la composition variable des peuplements de forêt boréale mixte, en place avant l’incendie, produit divers comportements du feu, entraînant une mortalité différenciée à l’échelle des peuplements, et une structure du paysage en mosaïque dont les propriétés varient de celles d’un paysage monospécifique. L'étude prend place au Québec en Abitibi dans les régions de Duparquet et de Val Paradis. L'environnement du feu est réduit à la végétation et au climat, en fixant constante la topographie (peuplements sélectionnés uniquement sur argiles mésiques à faibles pentes).

L’étude des débris ligneux et leur évolution temporelle au cours de la succession (jusqu'à 230 ans après le dernier feu dans la région de Duparquet) est la première du genre en forêt boréale mixte au Canada et les résultats vont à l’encontre des principaux modèles d’accumulation de matière morte des forêts nord américaines. En forêt boréale mixte, les patrons temporels d’accumulation des débris ligneux au sol suivent une courbe sigmoïde et sont influencés par la composition de la canopée et le temps depuis le dernier feu, alors que les chicots suivent une courbe de croissance progressive et ne sont influencés que par le temps depuis le dernier feu. A l'opposé, la plupart des autres écosystèmes forestiers présentent, suite à un feu, des accumulations selon une courbe en "U". Cette différence majeure s’explique notamment en forêt boréale mixte par le remplacement des espèces dominantes au sein de la canopée, des productivités spécifiques différentielles, des taux de décomposition élevés, et l’occurrence de perturbations naturelles telles que les épidémies d'insectes représentant des pulses épisodiques d’apport de débris ligneux. Ces derniers étant reconnus comme des habitats privilégiés pour de nombreux organismes, l'aménagement durable écosystémique devra donc développer des méthodes permettant de conserver dans les peuplements exploités suffisamment de débris ligneux, au sol et dressés, dont le nombre et la composition reflèteront la structure de la mosaïque naturelle.

La susceptibilité au feu d'un peuplement ("stand fire hazard"), définie pour cette étude comme le départ potentiel du feu et agissant sur la sévérité post-incendie, est influencée par la composition et la structure du peuplement. Ce résultat est mis en évidence à Duparquet (Abitibi) par l'analyse des combustibles de surface simultanément en place dans chacun des 48 peuplements. Les différences significatives trouvées portent sur les combustibles fins (branches et arbustes) dont les charges sont plus importantes dans les peuplements conifères que dans les feuillus. Si la succession est reconstruite en regroupant les peuplements étudiés en quatre types (feuillus, mixtes-feuillus, mixtes-conifères, et conifères), les résultats suggèrent que la susceptibilité au feu des peuplements croit au cours de la succession avec l'augmentation des résineux. L'impact de la variabilité des combustibles est testé par la comparaison de simulations du comportement du feu provenant du système BEHAVE. Ce simulateur a été choisi en raison de la nécessité d'incorporer les charges des différents combustibles de surface. Les simulations sont réalisées pour des feux de printemps et d'été avec une fenêtre météorologique couvrant des risques de feu faibles à extrêmes. Les résultats suggèrent qu'au départ du feu, les peuplements feuillus supportent une intensité dégagée plus faible et une propagation de la flamme plus lente que les peuplements mixtes ou conifères.

La végétation et le climat influencent significativement le comportement du feu en forêt boréale mixte. Ce résultat provient des simulations réalisées à l'aide des systèmes BEHAVE et FBP (Fire Behavior Prediction) sur les peuplements de Duparquet, et il alimente la polémique concernant le rôle des différents facteurs de l'environnement du feu. Les résultats des ANOVA suggèrent que le climat a un effet prédominant comparé à la végétation. Toutefois, il existe dans la mosaïque naturelle des peuplements très différents et non pris en compte dans cette étude. L'influence du facteur végétation sur le comportement du feu doit donc être sous-estimée dans les résultats présentés. Dans le cadre d'un aménagement durable écosystémique il serait pertinent de considérer à long terme l'effet du climat et de ses changements sur l'occurrence et le comportement des feux, ainsi que sur les changements au niveau de la végétation. De plus, si les effets des feux naturels servent de base au développement de pratiques sylvicoles, l'analyse du comportement du feu présentée suggère d'appliquer des coupes de tailles variables et des pratiques agissant sur les sols avec des sévérités différentes. En effet, les surfaces brûlées et les intensités dégagées augmentent proportionnellement avec la surface terrière des conifères.

Les comparaisons entre les comportements du feu observés lors de brûlages expérimentaux et ceux prédits par les systèmes BEHAVE et FBP révèlent que les prédictions quantitatives de BEHAVE sont inadaptées à la forêt boréale mixte. Ce résultat ne remet pas en question l'emploi de BEHAVE dans l'étude de la susceptibilité au feu puisque celui-ci est le seul système basé sur les charges des combustibles, et qualitativement les systèmes FBP et BEHAVE présentent la même classification des peuplements. A l'opposé, les valeurs prédites par le FBP sont proches des observations réelles. Ce résultat confirme la pertinence de l'emploi futur du FBP pour la forêt boréale mixte, et encourage l'amélioration des équations traitant du comportement du feu dans les peuplements mixtes. © 2000 UQAM tous droits réservés.

Surface fuels were examined in 48 stands of the Canadian mixed-wood boreal forest. Tree canopy was characterized with the point-centred quadrant method and stands were characterized as deciduous, mixed-deciduous, mixed-coniferous or coniferous according to the percentage of conifer basal area. Woody debris loadings were measured with the line intersect method and the Litter, duff, shrub loads and depths or heights were sampled with various quadrats. No significant difference was found among stand types for total woody debris load, large basal diameter shrub loads and load or depth of litter and duff. However, conifer stands had significantly heavier loads of small diameter elements (twigs and shrubs) and conifer pieces were more numerous within these stands than in deciduous stands. The BEHAVE prediction system was used to evaluate the impact of these differences on the potential of fire ignition in situations where topography and weather were constant. The qualitative and quantitative changes in fuels, resulting from species replacement and fast decay rates, influence fire hazard. Simulations of fire behaviour showed that in the mixed-wood boreal forest fires were less intense and spread more slowly in deciduous stands than in mixed or coniferous stands. Moreover, spring fires were more intense than summer fires, and differences between seasons increased with the increase of deciduous basal area.