In areas sensitive to forest management, paludification and successive disturbances in boreal forest can affect forest regeneration negatively, sometimes resulting in stand opening. As these negative effects on forest productivity are not fully considered in strategic management planning, a new landscape dynamics model integrating fire, paludification, forest harvesting, and regeneration failure was used to assess these impacts in a large forest management unit (10,828 km2) of northwestern Québec. Two reforestation scenarios, one based on the accessibility of the areas to be treated and the other aimed at restoring all burned and paludified areas to production were compared to one with no intervention. The success of the scenarios was evaluated using the predicted volume harvested, the proportion of closed or opened stands areas, an indicator of productivity; the cost of reforestation and the royalties associated with harvesting. Harvesting the paludified areas without reforesting would lead to a sharp increase in open stands areas (+17.3%). The strategy of reforesting accessible areas is the most promising for achieving sustainable forest management targets. The monitoring of maximum potential volume (MPV) and the closed forest area as indicators of landscape productivity provides the ability to anticipate problems earlier than with the conventional forest planning indicators.

Wildfire is an important component of the dynamics of boreal-forest ecosystems, but it can also contribute to the loss of forest resources, especially when fires escape initial attack and become large. Annual fire management costs in the province of Quebec are substantial (annual average of C$69 million for 1994–2014). The main objective of this study was to evaluate the financial impact of fire management on forest resources in Quebec. Our study includes cost–benefit analyses of nine fire management presuppression expenditure scenarios using forest and fire data for three commercially managed forest management units in the province of Quebec that experience varying mean annual burn rates (0.06–0.56%?year?1). The reduction in the burn rate attributed to fire management increased the revenue from the sale of primary-processed wood product and reduced fire suppression expenditure. The combined effects of reduced suppression expenditure and increased revenue from value-added timber harvest and wood processing with a lower fire risk compensated for increased fire presuppression expenditure.

The maintenance of old-growth stands is important for sustaining natural forest ecosystems, but fire disturbances and commonly-used timber harvest practices exert adverse impacts on the retention of old-growth forests. Forest management planning prescribes harvest levels based on the planning policy and models, but the impact of the management strategies on the retention of old-growth forests has not been well studied. The objectives of this study were to examine: a) the impact of implementing three different harvest policies on the retention of old-growth forest and b) the impact of implementing a policy of maintaining a targeted minimum of 20% old-growth area on the harvest revenue that would be generated over a long planning horizon. To simulate the implementation of these policies, we developed three strategic timber harvest-scheduling models. The first model (Model 1) maximizes harvest timber volume; Model 2 maximizes the net present value (NPV) of the timber harvested; and Model 3 maximizes the NPV of value-added products at the primary processing mills. The value-added products we considered were lumber, chips and sawdust. The models were solved for three forest management units with different fire regimes. Solutions to models that did not include a strict constraint on old-growth forest area retention did not retain the targeted level of old-growth forest over a 150-year planning horizon. When an old-growth constraint was implemented, Model 3 produced the greatest revenue with the least variation by 5-year period over the planning horizon. The probability of finding a feasible solution to our optimization Model 3 with an old-growth forest constraint increased to 0.87–1.0 compared with 0.71–0.83 using Model 1, and 0.78–0.87 using Model 2. We conclude that the value-added policy model increases the probability of sustaining the bioeconomy while preserving forest ecosystems initiated by disturbance.

Accurate estimation of aboveground biomass (AGB) using remote sensing data is still challenging and an approach based on an understanding of forest disturbance and succession could help improve AGB estimation. In the boreal forest of North America, time since last fire (TSLF) is seen as a useful variable to explain post-fire successional change and aboveground biomass (AGB). Within a large study area (>200 000 km2) located in the northeastern American boreal forest, we compared remotely sensed biomass estimates of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), GLAS (Geoscience Laser Altimeter System) and ASAR (Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar) with inventory-based estimates derived from ground plots, and forest maps at a spatial resolution of 2-km2. We identified that TSLF could explain the error observed in remotely sensed AGB estimates (MODIS (45%), GLAS (47%) or ASAR (23%)) when associated with surficial geological substrate information at that scale. Our results therefore show the importance of TSLF as a potential ancillary variable for improving the accuracy of remotely sensed AGB estimates in North American boreal forests.

In northeastern Canadian boreal forests, a coarse-filter approach was adopted to provide sustainable ecosystem services in order to maintain a balance between biodiversity, ecosystem function and timber production. An old forest (>100 years) maintenance target was established considering the range of historical variability in the proportion of this forest stage. However, the estimation of the harvesting rate that maintains the target level in old forests did not consider explicitly the impact of current and future, i.e. possibly higher, fire frequency. In this context, we compared historical, current, and future age structures according to recorded or projected fire activity and the current level of harvesting in western Quebec's boreal forest. Results show that under the current rates of harvesting and fire, the proportion of old forests could reach a minimum level rarely seen in the natural landscape in the past. The situation could become even more critical with the projected increase in fire activity under climate change. Numerous forest and fire management solutions exist, such as increasing rotation length, implementing a diversified silviculture, using a fire-smart approach or reaching a better balance between intensive management and conservation. We advocate their rapid implementation to reverse the projected decrease in the proportion of old forests.

Risk analysis entails the systematic use of historical information to determine the frequency, magnitude and effects of unexpected events. Wildfire in boreal North America is a key driver of forest dynamics and may cause very significant economic losses. An actuarial approach to risk analysis based on cumulative probability distributions was developed to reduce the adverse effects of wildfire. To this effect, we developed spatially explicit landscape models to simulate the interactions between harvest, fire and forest succession over time in a boreal forest of eastern Canada. We estimated the amount of reduction of timber harvest necessary to build a buffer stock of sufficient size to cover fire losses and compared it to an insurance premium estimated in units of timber volume from the probability of occurrence and the amount of damage. Overall, the timber harvest reduction we applied was much more costly than the insurance premium even with a zero interest rate. This is due to the fact that the insurance premium is directly related to risk while the timber harvest reduction is not and, as a consequence, is much less efficient. These results, especially the comparison with a standard indicator such as an insurance premium, have useful implications at the time of choosing a mitigation strategy to protect timber supplies against risk without overly diminishing the provision of services from the forest. They are also promoting the use of insurance against disastrous events in forest management planning.

Fires are a key disturbance of boreal forests. In fact, they are the main source of renewal and evolution for forest stands. The variability of fire through space and time results in a diversified forest mosaic, altering their species composition, structure and productivity. A resilient forest is assumed to be in a state of dynamic equilibrium with the fire regime, so that the composition, age structure and succession stages of forests should be consistent with the fire regime. Dense spruce-moss stands tend, however, to diminish in favour of more open stands similar to spruce-lichen stands when subjected to more frequent and recurring disturbances. This study therefore focused on the effects of spatial and temporal variations in burn rates on the proportion of open stands over a large geographic area (175,000 km2) covered by black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton, Sterns, Poggenb.). The study area was divided into 10 different zones according to burn rates, as measured using fire-related data collected between 1940 and 2006. To test if the abundance of open stands was unstable over time and not in equilibrium with the current fire regime, forest succession was simulated using a landscape dynamics model that showed that the abundance of open stands should increase progressively over time in zones where the average burn rate is high. The proportion of open stands generated during a specific historical period is correlated with the burn rate observed during the same period. Rising annual burn rates over the past two decades have thereby resulted in an immediate increase in the proportion of open stands. There is therefore a difference between the current proportion of open stands and the one expected if vegetation was in equilibrium with the disturbance regime, reflecting an instability that may significantly impact the way forest resources are managed. It is apparent from this study that forestry planning should consider the risks associated with the temporal variability of fire regimes on the forest ecosystem, as the resulting changes can have a significant impact on biodiversity and allowable cut estimates.

In existing carbon budget models, carbon stocks are not explicitly related to forest successional dynamics and environmental factors. Yet time-since-last-fire (TSLF) is an important variable for explaining successional changes and subsequent carbon storage. The objective of this study was to predict the spatial variability of aboveground biomass carbon (ABC) as a function of TSLF and other environmental factors across the landscape at regional scales. ABC was predicted using random forest models, both at the sample-plot level and at the scale of 2-km2 cells. This cell size was chosen to match the observed minimum fire size of the Canadian large fire database. The percentage variance explained by the empirical sample-plot level model of ABC was 50%. At that scale, TSLF was not significantly related to ABC. At the 2-km2 scale, ABC was influenced mainly by the proportions of cover density classes, which explained 83% of the variance. Changes in cover density were related to TSLF at the same 2-km2 scale, indicating that the increase in cover density following fire disturbance is a dominant mechanism through which TSLF acts upon ABC at the scale of landscapes.

Le feu est considéré comme étant une perturbation majeure en forêt boréale. Il importe donc d’en tenir compte dans le processus de planification de l’aménagement forestier. De plus, comme le temps d’exposition des peuplements au feu est relié à leur productivité, le fait de combiner des données sur la productivité à celle du risque lié au feu devrait nous aider à évaluer le potentiel d’un territoire pour y pratiquer un aménagement forestier durable. Dans cet article, nous présentons une méthode qui permet d’évaluer la vulnérabilité potentielle d’une région au risque relié aux feux de forêt et nous l’illustrons en l’appliquant à la forêt boréale coniférienne du Québec. Cette méthode prend en compte quelques éléments d’incertitude liés à la productivité et à l’activité des feux. Nous avons spatialisé la productivité des peuplements pour l’ensemble du territoire à l’étude, à partir des tables de rendement, de manière à estimer, pour chaque secteur, la superficie occupée par des forêts productives, en considérant ou non le risque relié au feu. Les résultats indiquent que la superficie des peuplements productifs décroît généralement avec une diminution du nombre de degrés-jours et une augmentation de l’altitude ou selon les dépôts de surface. De plus, même les secteurs ayant une productivité de moyenne à bonne sont jugés comme étant vulnérables au feu lorsque leur taux de brûlage excèdent 0,333 %·année–1. Notre approche innovatrice a permis d’évaluer le degré de vulnérabilité des différents secteurs par rapport au feu. Elle pourra aussi être utile dans plusieurs régions où, en raison des changements climatiques, nous pouvons prévoir un accroissement des superficies annuelles brûlées.

Avec l’intérêt croissant à travers le monde envers les forêts du nord tant pour la production de fibre que pour l’atténuation des changements climatiques, des travaux explorant la productivité forestière peu après le feu et les facteurs qui la déterminent sont requis. Nous avons étudié la productivité des forêts, définie en termes de qualité du coefficient de distribution (stocking) et de la croissance, dans 116 sites de 10–30 années après feu distribués dans une zone de 90 000 km2 au nord de la limite d’attribution des forêts commerciales du Québec et dominé par Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P. et Pinus banksiana Lamb. Soixante-douze pour cent des sites ont été classés comme improductifs, principalement en raison de la faible croissance. Puisque la croissance est fortement liée à des facteurs climatiques, le boisement seul ne serait pas suffisant pour augmenter la productivité des peuplements dans notre zone d’étude. En outre, nos résultats montrent que P. banksiana sur des sites secs pourrait être moins résilient au feu qu’on ne le pensait, probablement à cause de mauvaises conditions de sites et du climat. Finalement, notre étude est l’une des premières à explorer les enjeux de productivité en bas âge dans les forêts naturelles du nord. Le schéma d’analyse proposé, en définissant la productivité des peuplements sur la base de la croissance et du coefficient de distribution, pourrait fournir un outil intéressant pour évaluer des problèmes similaires de manière précoce dans d’autres systèmes.