La saison des feux de forêt de 2023 au Québec, marquée par des conditions extrêmement chaudes et sèches, a établi de nouveaux records en brûlant 4,5 millions d'hectares. Cette situation est directement liée aux impacts persistants et en augmentation du changement climatique. Cette étude examine les conditions météorologiques exceptionnelles ayant mené aux feux et évalue leurs impacts significatifs sur le secteur forestier, la gestion des feux, les habitats du caribou boréal, et met particulièrement en lumière les répercussions profondes sur les communautés des Premières Nations. Les feux ont entraîné une baisse significative de la productivité des forêts et de l'approvisionnement en bois, submergeant les équipes de gestion des feux et nécessitant des évacuations massives. Le territoire et les communautés des Premières Nations ont été profondément affectés, confrontés à de graves problèmes de qualité de l'air et à des bouleversements considérables. Si l'impact sur l?habitat du caribou a été modeste dans l'ensemble de la province, les répercussions écologiques, économiques et sociales ont été considérables. Pour atténuer les impacts à venir des prochaines saisons de feux de forêt extrêmes, une avenue suggérée serait de modifier les pratiques d?aménagement forestier afin d'accroître la résilience et la résistance des forêts, d'adapter les structures industrielles aux nouvelles sources d'approvisionnement en bois et d'améliorer les stratégies de lutte contre les feux et la gestion des risques. De même, une approche globale

The eastern, maritime portion of the black spruce – moss bioclimatic domain in Québec (Canada) is characterized by large wildfires with low occurrence. However, it is still poorly understood how climate–fire interactions influenced long-term vegetation dynamics in the boreal forest of eastern Québec. The long-term historical climate–fire–vegetation interactions in this region were investigated using a multiproxy (chironomids, charcoal, and pollen) paleoecological analysis of an 8500-year sediment core. Chironomid-inferred August air temperatures suggest that the warm Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; between ca. 7000–4000 cal yr BP) shifted to the cooler Neoglacial period (4000 cal yr BP to present), consistent with other temperature reconstructions across Québec. The shift to spruce-moss forest dominance around 4800 cal yr BP occurred nearly a thousand years before the climatic shift to the Neoglacial period and rather coincided with a shift from frequent low-severity small fires to infrequent but large and severe fire events. Our results suggest that long-term changes in the summer temperature are probably not the main factor controlling fire and vegetation dynamics in eastern Québec. It seems that, throughout the postglacial period, summer temperatures never fell below a threshold that could have induced a significant vegetation response.

La partie orientale et maritime du domaine bioclimatique de la pessière à mousse au Québec (Canada), est caractérisée par des grands incendies à très faible occurrence. Cependant, l’effet des interactions climat-feu sur la dynamique à long terme de la végétation dans la forêt boréale de l’est du Québec est peu connu. A l’aide d’une analyse paléoécologique multiproxies (chironomes, charbon de bois, pollen) d’une carotte sédimentaire de 8500 ans, nous avons documenté les interactions à long terme entre le climat, le feu et la végétation à l’est du Québec. Les températures de l’air du mois d’août reconstituées par les chironomes suggèrent que la période chaude de l’Optimum climatique Holocène (7000-4000 ans avant aujourd’hui (AA)) a cédé place à la période froide du Néoglaciaire (4000 ans AA à l’actuel) en cohérence avec les reconstitutions climatiques réalisées ailleurs au Québec. L’établissement de la pessière à mousses il y a environ 4800 ans s’est produit près d’un millier d’années avant la transition vers le Néoglaciaire et a plutôt coïncidé avec le changement de petits incendies peu sévères fréquents, à de grands incendies sévères peu fréquents. D’après nos résultats, les changements de températures estivales ne semblent pas jouer un rôle prépondérant dans la dynamique de la végétation et des feux dans l’est du Québec. Il semble que, tout au long de la période postglaciaire, les températures estivales n’aient jamais diminué sous un seuil qui aurait induit une réponse significative de la végétation.

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall) growth in the species’ southern range has been declining since the 1980s, putting at risk a variety of ecosystem services that the species provides. Heatwaves, drought, frosts, acidic deposition, and insect defoliation, all reducing photosynthetic activity, have been suggested to be behind the phenomenon. Because the geographic scope of previous studies on maple growth is limited to the southern temperate biome, it is not currently understood whether the same negative trends and factors affecting growth rates apply to the species in more northern regions of its distribution range. Here we used annual ring-width data of 1675 trees from a network of 21 sites in Quebec and Ontario between 45˚N and 48˚N to reconstruct maple growth and to analyze its trends and climatic drivers since 1950 C

An isolated sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) stand is located in the boreal forest of Abitibi, about 75?km beyond its present northern range limit. When did this relatively thermophilous tree species establish after ice retreat? Were its populations more abundant than now sometimes in the past? If so, when and how did they expand then retracted? How did the species persist in boreal forest over time? What could have been the role of fire on this stand? To answer those questions, we reconstructed the postglacial fire and vegetation history from three lacustrine sediment sequences distributed along a c. 180?km latitudinal transect from southern boreal forests to the northern portion of deciduous forests. From north to south, those are lakes Labelle, Chasseur and Fur. We explored a procedure based on pollen accumulation rates in order to detect the probable presence of sugar maple within the lakes? watershed. The procedure successfully indicates a sugar maple establishment c. 7800?5100 cal. BP at Fur, 5500?4400 cal. BP at Chasseur and c. 4000?2700 cal. BP at Labelle, in the north. At Fur, the subsequent sugar maple expansion happened 1 to 2 thousand years after establishment, during colder and moister climatic conditions favoring Pinus strobus L. replacement by Betula spp. c. 6000?5000 cal. BP. Sugar maple establishment, persistence or expansion is apparently not linked to a change in fire activity at Fur and Chasseur, but at Labelle, the species was more abundant during periods of shorter fire return intervals from 2000 to 500 years ago. Our study suggests that northern (Chasseur and Labelle) sugar maple establishment and possible expansion was probably more controlled by a complex interaction of inhibition and facilitation dynamics than by climate alone, a process reliant on the dominant vegetation?s composition and structure.

Climate change is expected to profoundly impact boreal forests, ranging from changes in forest composition and productivity to modifications in disturbance regimes. These climate-induced changes represent a major challenge for forest ecosystem management, as information based on ecological classification may no longer provide a straightforward guide for attaining management goals in the future. In this chapter, we examine how climate change could influence the use of ecological classification and by what means this approach can continue to be relevant for guiding the ongoing development of management practices. We address these questions by first describing ecological classification, using the example of Québec’s classification system, and then showing its importance in forest ecosystem management. Using a forest landscape in Québec as a case study, we then look at how climate change could affect boreal forest ecosystems by presenting a detailed, multistep analysis that considers climate analogs, habitat suitability, and changes in forest composition. We show that at the end of the century, the vegetation of the Abies-Betula western subdomain will not change sufficiently to resemble that of its climate analog, currently located ~500 km to the south. Changes in fire frequency and severity could significantly modify forest dynamics and composition. Consequently, the potential vegetation and the successional pathways defined under the current climate could change and follow new successional trajectories. This possible reality forces us to question some fundamental aspects of ecological classification. However, we argue that ecological classification can still provide a valuable framework for future forest management, particularly in continuing to recognize the various types of ecosystems present along toposequences. Given the changes expected in forest vegetation composition and dynamics, future variability and uncertainty must be integrated into the current stable classification units and predictable successional trajectories of ecological classification.

Regional analyses assessing the vulnerabilities of forest ecosystems and the forest sector to climate change are key to considering the heterogeneity of climate change impacts as well as the fact that risks, opportunities, and adaptation capacities might differ regionally. Here we provide the Regional Integrated Assessment of climate change on Quebec's forests, a work that involved several research teams and focused on climate change impacts on Quebec's commercial forests and on potential adaptation solutions. Our work showed that climate change will alter several ecological processes within Quebec's forests. These changes will result in important modifications in forest landscapes. Harvest will cumulate with climate change effects to further alter future forest landscapes, which will also have consequences on wildlife habitats (including woodland caribou habitat), avian biodiversity, carbon budget, and a variety of forest landscape values for Indigenous peoples. The adaptation of the forest sector will be crucial to mitigate the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystem goods and services and improve their resilience. Moving forward, a broad range of adaptation measures, notably through reducing harvest levels, should be explored to help strike a balance among social, ecological, and economic values. We conclude that without climate adaptation, strong negative economic and ecological impacts will likely affect Quebec's forests.

Regional analyses assessing the vulnerabilities of forest ecosystems and the forest sector to climate change are key to consider the heterogeneity of climate change impacts but also the fact that risks, opportunities and adaptation capacities might differ regionally. Here we provide the Regional Integrated Assessment of climate change on Quebec’s forests, a work that involved several research teams and that focused on climate change impacts on Quebec’s commercial forests and on potential adaptation solutions. Our work showed that climate change will alter several ecological processes within Quebec’s forests. These changes will result in important modifications in forest landscapes. Harvest will cumulate with climate change effects to further alter future forest landscapes which will also have consequences on wildlife habitat (including woodland caribou habitat), avian biodiversity, carbon budget and a variety of forest landscape values for Indigenous peoples. The adaptation of the forest sector, will be crucial to mitigate the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystem goods and services and improve their resilience. Moving forward, a broad range of adaptation measures, notably through reducing harvest levels, should be explored to help strike a balance among social, ecological and economic values. We conclude that without climate adaptation strong negative economical and ecological impacts will likely affect Quebec’s forests.

We investigated how the surrounding environment influences the growth of dominant trees and their responses to temperature and insect epidemics in boreal forests of eastern Canada. We focused on 82 black spruce and jack pine focal trees in stands spanning a double gradient of species diversity and soil texture within a 36 km2 area of western Québec. For these trees, we compared their diameter at breast height, growth rates, temperature-growth relations, and growth during insect defoliator epidemics. We used linear models to study how surrounding tree attributes and soil properties affected the growth of focal trees. Models showed that tree growth responses and responses to temperature and insect epidemics were generally negative with higher intraspecific competition and positive with greater tree species diversity. Growth of both species benefitted from lower soil sand content. Our research offers novel insights on the potential role of the surrounding environment, notably tree competition and species diversity, in mitigating the vulnerability of eastern Canada’s boreal trees to anthropogenic climate change and insect epidemics.

As a result of extreme weather conditions associated with anthropogenic climate change, fire regimes are expected to continue to change in the boreal forest over the 21st century and beyond. Consequently, changes in ecological attributes like stand composition, tree density and forest carbon stock can be expected. In the present study, we used an adjusted version of the CanFIRE model to project long-term (1971–2100) changes in burn rates, fire severity and fire-induced shifts in vegetation composition in response to anticipated scenarios of climate change, in the black spruce-feather moss subdomain of Western Quebec. The model provides decadal-scale estimates of the immediate physical effects of fire on forest communities by computing expected fire behavior and the resulting ecological effects. Changes in species composition of the forest is also computed based on mechanisms of succession in natural forest communities and fire-mediated vegetation transitions. Projections suggest an increase in potential burn rates across the study area under future weather conditions and also an overall reduction in percent tree mortality and total fuel consumption. This reduction is caused by negative feedback from vegetation composition that shifts to less-fire prone states. Although common forest communities will remain the same in the studied subdomain until 2100 (recurrence dynamics), significant losses of productive area (LPA) are projected, particularly in forest management units rich in forest communities dominated by black spruce or jack pine, as a result of regeneration failure due to very short intervals between successive fires. While remaining similar under moderate (RCP4.5) and high-end (RCP8.5) warming scenarios in all forest management units, LPA will vary from 25 to 36% of the percent cover by 2100 compared to 1970. These results provide insights to policy makers and land managers, and they attract attention to the pressing need to adjust management practices in the context of climate change.

We investigated whether stand species mixture can attenuate the vulnerability of eastern Canada’s boreal forests to climate change and insect epidemics. For this, we focused on two dominant boreal species, black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), in stands dominated by black spruce or trembling aspen (“pure stands”), and mixed stands (M) composed of both species within a 36 km2 study area in the Nord-du-Québec region. For each species in each stand composition type, we tested climate-growth relations and assessed the impacts on growth by recorded insect epidemics of a black spruce defoliator, the spruce budworm (SBW) [Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)], and a trembling aspen defoliator, the forest tent caterpillar (FTC; Malacosoma disstria Hübn.). We implemented linear models in a Bayesian framework to explain baseline and long-term trends in tree growth for each species according to stand composition type and to differentiate the influences of climate and insect epidemics on tree growth. Overall, we found climate vulnerability was lower for black spruce in mixed stands than in pure stands, while trembling aspen was less sensitive to climate than spruce, and aspen did not present differences in responses based on stand mixture. We did not find any reduction of vulnerability for mixed stands to insect epidemics in the host species, but the non-host species in mixed stands could respond positively to epidemics affecting the host species, thus contributing to stabilize ecosystem-scale growth over time. Our findings partially support boreal forest management strategies including stand species mixture to foster forests that are resilient to climate change and insect epidemics.